(My answer on Quora).
Ah the Annus mirabilis papers of 1905. What a wonderful year that was for in the history of Physics.
Looking back with hindsight I would argue that three of the papers were worthy of Nobel Prizes. The Photoelectric Effect paper is now a moot point as Einstein actually won his Nobel Prize in Physics (in 1921) as a consequence of that paper’s insight viz. the development of a relationship between the energy of an incoming photon, the work function of the metal and the kinetic energy of the ejected electron.
The two papers dealing with Special Relativity and Mass-energy equivalence (a function of special relativity) respectively are widely considered today to be far greater contributions to our understanding of physics than the Photoelectric Effect paper but at the time the consequences of both papers were extremely controversial. Original work that shatters a paradigm always will be. It is for this reason that they were not granted the necessary accolades at the time.
However they are both deserving of a Nobel Prize in their own right. No question about that. Our very understanding of nuclear and particle physics hinges on each of them.
The fourth paper dealing with Brownian motion helped convince several physicists, who were somewhat of the skeptical the notion of atoms, to change their minds but I do not believe that it in itself is significant enough to warrant a Physics Nobel Prize.
In any case three out of four is an unbelievable haul. Well done Albert.
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