Thursday, February 28, 2019

Do you agree that Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard are the best English footballers? If not than who is the best English footballers in your opinion?

My answer on Quora

Steve Gerrard and Frank Lampard were both excellent players and Gerrard in particular should be ranked in my opinion in the Top Ten of All-Time.
Gerrard was a classic box-to-box midfielder who could tackle, pass effectively (both long and short range), cross, take set pieces and score goals. He could literally play at any position on the pitch (other than goalkeeper of course). Although he never won the league he did win everything else. His genius was most displayed by the way that he orchestrated Liverpool’s come-from-behind win in the Champion’s League Final (2005) and the FA Cup Final (2006).
Lampard was more of an attacking midfielder who played in a Chelsea system that afforded him the opportunity of essentially functioning as an auxiliary striker. Unlike Gerrard he had the luxury of deep midfield cover afforded to him by Claude Makélélé and Michael Essien and rarely (if ever had) had to dig deep and carry out the ball winning play in his own half. He was a prolific scorer but I don’t believe that he was as versatile as Gerrard. Still he was a player of tremendous ability.
Returning to the question…The English game is old and has had many storied players who deserve an inclusion in an all-time Top Ten List. These lists are of course subjective but I would, as much as I like Gerro, I would place Bobby Charlton, Jimmy Greaves, Stanley Matthews, Kevin Keegan, Tom Finney, Gary Linker and Alan Shearer ahead of him (maybe not in that order of course) in terms of overall contribution to the game.
Jimmy Greaves Source: Players rally to show support for Jimmy GreavesScoring Machine 386 Goals in 566 appearances. 44 goals in 56 games for England.
Paul Gascoigne, Glenn Hoddle and Paul Scholes were first rate as well but I am still convinced that in terms of player completion that Gerro can ride alongside any of them.
Kevin ‘Mighty Mouse’ Keegan Source: Kevin Keegan at Liverpool - Won back-to-back Ballon D’Ors (1978 and 1979)

Why did my Dad always say Harry Truman was the greatest President the United States ever had?

My answer on Quora

The Greatest of All Time is rarefied territory. However there is no doubt in my mind that Truman was a tremendous president. Certainly Top Ten. I believe that his legacy should be celebrated by both parties.
Here is a list of his key accomplishments. Harry S Truman..
  • Worked to ensure the unconditional surrender of Germany in 1945 and negotiated the post war order that would exist on the continent.
  • Accepted the surrender of Japan.
Surrender of Japan - Wikipedia. Signed on board the USS Missouri
West Berlin children celebrating the airlift Source: Why the Berlin Airlift Was the First Major Battle of the Cold War
  • Set in motion the desegregation of the Army (completed by Eisenhower) - Executive Order 9981.Executive Order 9981
  • Signed into law the Housing Act of 1949 that increased the scope of public housing (major victory in the Fair Deal). https://www.innovations.harvard....
  • Merged the Armed Forces in 1947 (National Security Act). Also established the Air Force as a separate unit.
  • Played a key role in the establishment of the CIA and the NSA.
  • Recognized the State of Israel as an Independent Country
  • Dispatched US troops to the Korean peninsula which prevented the entire region from being engulfed by the Communist forces of North Korea (with later Chinese backing).
  • Had a lead role in drawing up the UN Charter in San Francisco.
  • Pulled off an election upset in 1948 when he defeated a strong and experienced challenger in Thomas Dewey while fending off Dixiecrat (Strom Thurmond) and Progressive (Henry Wallace) opposition.
Truman defeated Dewey in another election that the media got wrong. Source: It's happened before: Truman's defeat of Dewey had hints of Trump-Clinton
Here are the Controversies of his Presidency and some of the shortfalls
  • The dropping of the Atomic Bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Truman described this as the ‘ the most terrible bomb in the history of the world’. The debate still rages today as to whether this was the most prudent move. I believe that it was (a topic for another question) . However Truman struggled immensely with this decision. The link here describes the various alternatives that were looked at. Harry S Truman’s Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb (U.S. National Park Service)
  • Truman was criticized for his handling of the Korean War. US Casualties would reach a level of over 128,000 + including 33, 686 killed. The war was successful in that it saved South Korea from being absorbed by the North but it largely ended in a stalemate. Truman’s dismissal of General Douglas MacArthur was a highly unpopular decision at the time (indeed he faced impeachment) although in retrospect it may have been a necessary one to ensure civilian control of the military. In Truman’s own words
If there is one basic element in our Constitution, it is civilian control of the military. Policies are to be made by the elected political officials, not by generals or admirals. Yet time and again General MacArthur had shown that he was unwilling to accept the policies of the administration. By his repeated public statements he was not only confusing our allies as to the true course of our policies but, in fact, was also setting his policy against the President's... If I allowed him to defy the civil authorities in this manner, I myself would be violating my oath to uphold and defend the Constitution Source: Truman, Harry S. (1965). Memoirs by Harry S. Truman: Years of Trial and Hope. New York: New American Library.
  • Truman’s Fair Deal was largely unsuccessful. Other than the Housing Act discussed above it failed passage through Congress.
  • Strike Action dominated Truman’s early years as President. The strike wave of 1945–46 was the largest in US labor history. Truman tried to veto the Taft-Hartley Act that restricted and limited the power of Labor unions but failed. The Postwar Strike Wave of 1945-46.
Harry Truman was a very unlikely President. He was not a part of FDR’s inner circle (nor was he member of the East Coast elite establishment) but he was forced into the difficult predicament following FDR’s death, of accepting the surrender of Germany and negotiating a post war peace in Europe that would not repeat the tragedy of Versailles.
He had to deal with a strong adversary in Josef Stalin whose troops had occupied most of Eastern Europe. While the agreement in Potsdam was far from perfect it did protect the integrity of Western Europe and staved off a possible clash with the powerful land force of the Red Army. It could have been a lot worse.
With respect to Japan, Truman needed to end the war in this region as soon as possible to minimize the loss of life. The dropping of the bombs was the best of several awful alternatives, While it now seems that Japan’s decision to surrender was motivated more by the Soviet entry into the war, without the luxury of hindsight, it is difficult to fault Truman here. Remember that the taking of the Island of Okinawa alone had seen 160,000 causalities on both sides. An invasion of Japan itself would have greatly multiplied this loss rate.
Truman’s brilliance though was in his swift recognition that the closure of World War II had created another problem for the Free World. The Cold War was a reality. The Iron Curtain had descended.
The US had to take the lead in combating the Soviet threat, and the isolationist policies of early years would have to give way to a more robust defense of the democracies. The US could ill-afford to sit back when so much was at stake.
Truman set up the infrastructure to carry out this new responsibility. He would suffer some setbacks but it was during his Presidency that the ground work to halt Soviet Expansion and eventually turn back the tide of Marxist-Leninist advancement was rooted.
This speaks volumes as to the vision of the man from Lamar, Missouri. He may have been an accidental President but he rose to meet the challenge with ingenuity and homegrown pragmatism and was indeed a great servant of the nation.
Sources

Sunday, February 17, 2019

The Green New Deal

My thoughts on Quora

"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." Marcus Aurelius
The Green New Deal is a Manifesto and not a very good one at that. The great thing about Manifestos is that everyone can have one. Marx had one, as did Simon Bolivar (Cartagena Manifesto), Robert Peel (Tamworth Manifesto), the Unabomber, Anders Breivik and Charlie Sheen. There is even a site that lists a whole bunch of Manifestos. 1000 Manifesto List - 1000Manifestos.com. In the era of cut and paste, blogging and social media manifestos are in fact a few software assists away from seeing the light and gaining an audience. How to write a manifesto. | Alexandra Franzen
I have read over the so-called Green New Deal three or four times trying to find pragmatic substance to it and I still find it both wanting and dangerous. As a teacher it reminds me of a B- Summative Project that a senior student would hand in for a World Issues Course. Yeah it has all the platitudes and speaks to a lot of issues but has all the depth of a one inch deep pool of water.
Some pictures need no introduction Source: What do Earth, Mars have in common?: Today's Toon
However it is receiving a great deal of publicity. So lets look at what is problematic about the Green New Deal (GND) and why it is indeed so controversial.
1.The Green New Deal interprets the October 2019 IPCC Report (SR15) as though its conclusions are written in stone and must drive policy.
Be wary of the notion of certainty in the Predictive Sciences. .
The ever excellent Nic Lewis, who forced the Scripps institute to wealk back their major study on ocean warming High-profile ocean warming paper to get a correction - provides a detailed analysis of the modelling used in SR15 explaining why the trending analysis appears to be running ‘hot’ based on observational data - Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.
The bottom line is that the prediction of future temperature based on mathematical modelling is a notoriously tricky affair (I have personal experience here as an engineer). It is fraught with uncertainty and should be interpreted as such. If you don’t believe me. Take a look at this.
The Blue thin line is the actual data. Look how large the error cone is. Which model works best?
This is not to say that we should disregard the overall trend. I personally believe that the planet is warming at a moderate level and that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is a forcing factor. However formulating rigid economic/energy policy that has a far reaching impact based on deference to a certainty of consensus is problematic. As Thomas H. Huxley puts it:
"The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin."
2. Even if the Sciences nails the issue head on the solution proposed by the Green New Deal reflect a bias that favors ideology over pragmatism.
The report has a strong anti-nuclear bias. This is especially disappointing as Nuclear Energy is largely carbon neutral. Even climate scientist James Hanson likes the idea. China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power
The Green New Deal echoes the same ideology.
A point to consider - A marker that the issue is ideologically driven is the name calling and bullying that appears to have clouded the Climate Science discipline in particular. Source: 'Dilbert' Tackles Climate Science Absurdity
3. There is a hysterical element to the Green New Deal.
Much of this relies on fears of a great disaster and an apocalyptic vision of the future. However history regularly pours cold water on this. Climate change predictions have been notoriously awful. http://www.aei.org/publication/1...
Take the giant scare about hurricanes. Yes their impacts may be more intense but in terms of frequency increase this is still very much uncertain. Hurricanes and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Nuanced voices need to prevail.
In fact its entirely conceivable that the hysteria itself hurts the cause. http://www.aei.org/publication/c....
4. The Green New Deal clearly has an agenda that extends way beyond concern for the environment
Read the Green New Deal and you will see very clearly that it is a manifesto of Progressive talking points (worker rights, union demands, housing, social engineering etc) that have been deliberately inserted to sell the deal to a larger audience. It is a masterpiece of conflation, that is using ‘concern for the environment’ to market a broader rubric of collectivist ideas to a wider intersectionality. This is completely disingenuous. It is a political battering ram.
Take a look at these quotes from those in the know.
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“ – Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
5. The GND roll out has proved so far to be an exercise in deceit
Along with the Green New Deal came the Green New Deal FAQ, that appeared and then mysteriously disappeared from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s website. Fortunately what happens on the internet has a way of staying on the internetGreen New Deal FAQ.
Reading the answers here it is clear that Jean-Jacques Rousseau, the Father of Left wing Authoritarianism would be proud. Considering his work on the popular will this excerpt from the FAQ would certainly resonate - ‘It is possible if we have the political will to do it’ .
Here are a few more statements ‘The Green New Deal is a 10-year plan to reorient our entire economy…’ and ‘..the tools of regulation and taxation, used in isolation, will not be enough to quickly and smoothly accomplish the transformation we need to see’.
Who is the we? Is this the people or just a cadre of elite who know what is best for us and are representing a so-called ‘will’? Sounds like a recipe for overreach at the expense of individual liberty.
We have of course seen this before also under the guise of the knowing eye of the state. Five-Year Plans | Definition & Facts and The Great Leap Forward - History Learning Site. I will let the reader evaluate the consequences.
Worth noting is the way AOC and other supporters of the GND misrepresent the success of Roosevelt’s New Deal. The Mythical Banking Crisis and the Failure of the New Deal | Hunter Lewis. The New Deal actually delayed the recovery from the Great Depression. FDR's policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate. Buyer beware.
The Green New Deal will come at a high cost both socially and economically. The payment schedule is driven by wishful thinking and seems ignorant of economics. Wanting it so, does not make it so and messing with an economy that has been on an upswing for some time is pure folly. US economy under Trump: Best in history?
6. The Green New Deal has been endorsed by most of the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential Election hopefuls.
Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are all supportive of the Green New Deal. So much so for the Party of Science. The candidates clearly need to be synchronized with one another to win over a primary electorate that is rapidly moving leftward. For moderates in the party this must bring up a few flags as well as several bouts of head shaking. In fact on the National Level it has given the GOP the perfect ammunition to paint the Democrats as a radical unit. Curious to see how the Dems will moderate in anticipation of November 2020 when an appeal to a broader electorate is the only strategy for victory or will this just double down on this hysteria.
So there it is…More fun and games in the name of politics. However the GND is more than that. It is a blatant attempt to sell a Top Down Package of deliberate social/economic engineering under the guise of advancing the common good. Fresh Face or not it should be tossed onto the heap of bad ideas.
Additional Sources
  1. Green New Deal. https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/...
  2. Why the Green New Deal Is Happening Now
  3. Anti-Nuclear Bias Of UN & IPCC Is Rooted In Cold War Fears Of Atomic And Population Bombs
  4. http://tps://www.spectator.co.uk...

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Is Bill Maher right about anything?

My answer on Quora.

He is right about several factors and I say this as somebody who is a Classical Liberal not a Modern liberal/progressive.
Now there is a lot that I don’t like about Maher. He still sees the world in a purely GOP v Dem dichotomy and when push comes to shove is very much a partisan hack. This shows itself in a tendency to mimic the low resolution MSM talking points of the day, all too often falling into the Stawman trap (which he seems oblivious to).
Maher also relies too much on humor to make a point and does not delve any deeper than one or two inches into an issue. He has a knack to oversimplify for a quick laugh making his standard routine rapidly tiresome.
In addition he has a tendency to endorse medical quackery that is suspect at best.
However he is far better than a stopped watch. This is what he gets correct.
  1. He understands the danger of Islamism as a political movement and is also not afraid to call out the Armed Jihad for what it is.
  2. Maher also appreciates that fundamentalism in Islam is a more serious problem than it is in other religions.
  3. For the most part he is a champion of Freedom of Speech and disdains censorship.
  4. He admits freely that university campuses have become toxic environments for discussing controversial issues and is not afraid to point this out.
  5. He has no qualms about inviting Conservatives on his show for debate. He is also respectful to his guests (when he is not interrupting them).
  6. Maher supports Israel’s right to defend itself and seems to appreciate the dangers it faces.
  7. He understands how the Democratic Party repeatedly ‘shoots itself in the foot by pandering to its more radical elements.
and finally he admitted that he goofed by endorsing Ralph Nader in 2000.
So yes…he has his pros and cons. I cut him some slack as he is a comedian and in the grand calculus is not a complete loss.

Can Elizabeth Warren win the Presidency?

My answer on Quora.

I very much doubt it. Here are the top eight reasons ‘why’ in my opinion.
  1. She has a very narrow appeal outside Progressive circles. A broad appeal is needed to win the National Election.
  2. There are more likable candidates on the Progressive end of the Dem Ticket eg. O’Rourke, Sanders, Harris etc.
  3. Her brand has been damaged by the ‘Pocahontas 1/1024’ saga….big time.
  4. Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand will likely market the first Female POTUS angle better.
  5. She is not a charismatic speaker. It does matter.
  6. Her brand does not seem transferable to the non-White voting base that is essential in winning the Dem. nomination. Booker and Harris are far stronger here.
  7. Her age may be off putting…yes it worked for Sanders…but he could play the old uncle schtick better. Warren has very little traction here.
  8. Most importantly….her political positions are far to the left of the American electorate. Not a great place to position oneself.

An Alternative History of the Future - Entry XVI

2078
Sino-Russia alliance
Russian dictator Yuri Sporzakov met with Chinese premier Zing Zeching in Hong Kong. The two leaders put aside their differences and decided to implement a cooperative economic and military plan. Analysts later argued that Sporzakov and Zeching had decided to divide up their territorial ambitions, so that Russia would be granted free reign in Europe and parts of the Middle East, while China would pursue its imperialistic aims in Asia without hindrance. At the meeting’s conclusion, Sporzakov remarked, “There is a need to create a new global power base, independent of the constraints of liberal democracy.” Such a power base, Sporzakov claimed, would favour the economic and population settlement demands of the “oppressed” Slavic and Chinese people. For several years, Sporzakov had spoken against what he termed “the economic exploitation of the Slavic people by Western nations.”
The EU and USA responded to the Sino-Russian bilateral agreement, by drawing several nations of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Pact, all of whom feared Chinese expansion, into military alliance with the West.

Assessment of global distribution of military power
The Relative Military rankings of the principal international armed forces, as listed in a 2078 edition of Jane’s, is given below.
The unit of measurement is the Military Standard (MS).
1 MS is equivalent to
2 battleships or
50 tanks or
1 aircraft carrier or
15 conventional missiles or
4 cruiser ships or
1 killer satellite or
10 fighter bombers

Country or Alliance

MS Units

Slavo-Asian Alliance

245

USA

237

China

212

EU

195

ASEAN[5]

174

WAU

94

LAAF[6]

95

EAF

62


The development of anti-nuclear missile systems by the major powers between 2020 and 2065, meant conventional wars could be waged without fear of recourse to nuclear weapons.
2079
The gathering storm between the West and Sino-Russia
Through a unanimous vote in Accra, the WAU opted to remain neutral with respect to the continued hostility unfolding between the Sino-Russian camp and the EU-US alliance. Latin American countries split evenly over the decision to choose sides in a conflict that one Brazilian political analyst described as a “Northern Hemisphere Crisis.” The Middle Eastern and Maghreb countries also expressed mixed feelings, with Algeria, Iraq and Pakistan siding diplomatically with the Sino-Russians, while Egypt’s secular government, Israel and Syria-Jordan backed the EU-US alliance. The EAF opted to remain neutral in any conflict.

Space agency splits: Two new space cities open
A political struggle within the SPA, led to the splitting of the organization and the formation of the rival International Space Agency (ISA), of which the United States and Germany were leading founders.
The same year, two space cities, Futaria A and Mirov, were established. The former was situated near the asteroid belt, where it functioned as a scientific monitoring base. The latter, an agricultural project belonging to the powerful Russian corporation Vlatchkov Holdings, was located in the vicinity of Venus.

Invention of the Gravo-suit
Denis Champlain, a Quebec engineer, invented the high-tech gravo-suit, that proved vital in the exploration of the outer planets in the 2090s. The suit used micro-stabo generators, implanted in its material fibre, to normalize the gravitational forces exerted upon an individual. The new suits were more comfortable than earlier technologies weighed less and offered better protection against cosmic radiation.

2080
Breakthrough in molecular genetic cleaning
General Electric designed and built the first Deletrious Molecular Remover (DMR). The DMR used controlled X-ray bombardment to clean DNA strands at the nanotech level. DMR was further enhanced in 2090s, by the development of DNA reconfiguration devices, able to remove unwanted atomic interference in individual DNA bases and thereby stabilize the integrity of the molecule against potential decay. Computer enhancement later increased the speed of DNA cleaning in vivo, thereby insuring the viable reproduction of DNA in the body. It became commonplace in the early twenty-second century, for people to visit DNA clinics to have their DNA cleaned as a protection against cancer.

War in Europe edges closer
A joint session of the UN and WON was convened in Lima, Peru, after the Russians began massing troops on the Polish and Finnish borders. UN Secretary-General Dominique Lamberaine, invited the Russians to discuss the troop deployment with representatives of the EU. This meeting, held in Geneva, proved fruitless. Russian Foreign Minister Ivan Balchenko, argued that Moscow was supporting the interests of Slavic minorities in both Poland and Finland and would not retreat from its planned action. The world held its breath as the threat of war became more imminent.

Mass space transport
As the dense population of the planet continued to strain Earth’s resources and decrease many people’s quality of life, cash benefits paid by interplanetary development corporations further enticed would-be new world colonists.
Simultaneously, the Technological Resource Foundation, ASEAN’s Engineering Initiative and a consortium of aeronautical companies (Airstar International, Lugvlieg Inc., Tatse-Yakamoto and Airbus), unveiled the Da Vinci series of high-capacity spaceships for both commercial and military use. These ships transported large numbers of people (up to eight thousand at a time), at high velocities, to destinations including Mars and Jupiter, furthering the space colonization initiative.

2081
China flexes her muscle
In August, China launched an attack on the independent nation of Nepal. Despite a brave defense by elite Ghurka fighting units, Katmandu fell to Chinese forces two months after the invasion. The UN and WON condemned the Chinese action by placing international trade sanctions on Beijing, however, countries in the Slavo-Asian Pact refused to adhere to these sanctions. In September, Chinese naval destroyers clashed with Japanese battleships off the Korean coast.

The West’s guarantees
The EU and US issued the Brussels Promise, guaranteeing the sovereign rights of any country threatened by either Slavo-Asian or Chinese aggression. US president Dianne Bergholm, despite her election less than a year earlier on an anti-war platform, won approval from Congress to introduce compulsory military conscription.

2082
Ukraine joins forces with Russia
Anatol Fuchma, a general in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, took control of the government in Kiev, after staging a successful military coup d’état. Fuchma added his country’s name to the Slavo-Asian pact, in spite of Western efforts to keep the Ukraine outside Russia’s sphere of influence. He preached Slavic brotherhood and coexistence, similar to Sporzakov’s rhetoric.
Soon after Fuchma gained control, construction began on an underground tunnel to enable the shipment of supplies between the Ukraine and Russia.