I would give Trump a seven and a very solid one at that even though I believe it is still way too early to fully judge his Presidency. The fog of war has not lifted at all and I am convinced that just like Harry Truman who left office with an average approval rating of 45.4% history will be kind to DJT. Presidential Approval Ratings -- Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends
Now just to show where that seven ranks with respect to the Post WWII presidents. Here is my take based on a reading of history and the consequence of their respective actions - Truman 8, Eisenhower 7.5, Kennedy 8, Johnson 5.5, Nixon 5, Ford 5, Carter 5, Reagan 8, George HW Bush 6, Clinton 7.5, George W Bush 5 and Obama 5 . We now have a frame of reference.
So why then do I believe that DJT, who by many accounts looks to be the most divisive President in modern history is worthy of such a relatively high ranking?
Here are the big items
Economics - Until the unfortunate emergence of COVID-19 the US economy under Trump was thriving. Growth rates were consistently high and unemployment (both U3 and U6) continued to tumble. Critics like to point out that this trend was a continuation of the Obama recovery (which finally kicked in after five years into his Presidency under the watchful eye of a GOP congress). There is some truth to this but the Trump era economy built significantly on this earlier showing. Trump also didn’t have the luxury of referencing his recovery to a weaker base which had the add-on effect of making Obama’s performance look better than it actually was. Trump’s Economy Really Was Better Than Obama’s and Black unemployment rate falls to a record low
A big reason for this continued economic success, was that the Trump Presidency was especially friendly towards medium sized and smaller businesses. His decision to remove the burden of stifling regulation - a legacy of the Obama and other administrations - was a step in the right direction as was were his overall tax cuts.
After scourge of COVID-19 made its presence felt the economic markers dropped but this was consistent with a global trend. Lockdowns are economic killers. Nevertheless the fundamentals remain strong and unless the likely incoming Biden administration radically tinkers with the key drivers we are likely to see a V rather than a K shaped recovery.Trump says the economy is booming. He's right -- but you don't feel it.
(You don’t feel it as COVID-19 is still with us and many states are a long way from fully opening up their economies).
Source: CNBC
Foreign Policy - Trump’s greatest success here is undoubtedly in the realm of the Middle East. His movement of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was a bold and long overdue action. Previous administrations had promised to do this but failed to deliver. His administration also catalyzed and carried through peace initiatives that normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan. Saudi Arabia looks set to follow soon.
Israel-UAE Agreement source: CNBC
Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) was the correct one as well. The deal did nothing to curb Iran’s long term nuclear ambition while it empowered the Mullahs through the lifting of sanctions to further strengthen their proxy armies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
The targeted execution of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani, a sponsor of international terrorism, including that directed against the US, was long overdue. It was a bold move and defied the gloom and doom prediction of a follow-up war which Cassandra like pundits so wrongly opined.Who was Qassem Soleimani, and why is his death a major development in U.S.-Middle East relations?
Payback in the form of the earlier execution of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was also welcomed. It followed on the heels of the defeat of Daesh in Syria and its weakening in Iraq. Both were fueled by American initiatives in the early part of Trump’s presidency.Trump: 'Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead'
Trump also solidified relations with India (likely to emerge as the US’s most critical global ally in the future) and Brazil. He had a strong working relationship with Boris Johnson in the UK and set up key avenues of co-operation with the Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.Trump, Obrador Hail US-Mexico Relationship During Meeting
Trump and Modi source: BBC
The Trump administration also re-adapted the of NAFTA agreement into the more relevant USMCA which was agreed on by all three countries (ironically it may have helped give Justin Trudeau the necessary boost in the 2019 Canadian national election).
While relations with Germany and France at time seemed strained a great deal of the sense of an impasse was largely driven by media reporting that was consistently hostile to Trump. Unfortunately such reporting has muddied the waters. Trump was correct in pushing the European countries to up their defensive contribution to NATO. For too long many of these countries have outsourced their defense to the US (and by extension the US taxpayer). If NATO is to succeed then they need to pay their fair share. If anything Trump’s advocacy here would strengthen not weaken NATO. Once again the media got this backward.Here's what each NATO country contributes financially to the world's strongest military alliance
With respect to China, Trump was fully justified in taking Beijing to task for abusing their Most Favoured Nation Status (so eagerly granted by earlier administrations). Their unfair subsidy of their locally produced goods and raw materials flies in the face of the free trade mantra. This has been known for some time. The Obama administration tried to address this issue themselves. While tariffs are problematic in the long run, they do offer a necessary methodology to force a trade partner, which is refusing to play by the accepted rules to modify their behaviour. The results here were mixed but it was a critical step in the right direction. If China wants the benefits of MFN status they must play by the rules. If not then a rethink of the status is warranted. Normalizing Trade Relations With China Was a Mistake
Some have criticized Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin, a trope that led to the lunacy of the entire Russian collusion narrative. The two have a very cordial relationship but I fail to see how that should be viewed as a negative. If anything co-operation between the two most powerful nuclear forces should be welcomed. The silly notion of Trump as being beholden to Putin simply did not stand up to the facts as I point out here. Is Trump Putin's puppet as Hillary opined?
So there is much that is positive that one can take away, but the most significant of all the foreign policy accomplishments is the fact that Trump has avoided embroiling the United States in a new war or a broader foreign conflict. This was not the case with many of his predecessors. For this alone we ought to be grateful.
Immigration
No President has been able to truly tackle the real concerns with Immigration despite the fact that most Americans seem to agree that legal immigration is for the most part a good idea for the country (based on economic and structural needs) while illegal immigration which flouts the rule of law isn’t.
The reason for historical Presidential failure is that the issue is complicated by several factors that include a demand for cheap labour, poor economic conditions south of the border and the all too frequent accusations of racism that are dishonestly thrown at anybody who attempts to address what is clearly a broken system.
Source: NBC News Cracking down on illegal immigration
The United States had by 2015 a total of 10.5 million undocumented immigrants which if they voted as a state block would be the equivalent of about 15–16 electoral college votes (almost as much as Ohio) Pew Documentation
As a number this figure is likely an understatement. It will if not curtailed likely grow in time placing placing economic and demographic stress on the nation’s socio-economic infrastructure. The Border wall was no panacea but it represented a necessary step to control aspects of the inflow that has brought with it the predictable problems of human and drug trafficking. Previous policies centering around catch and release had limited efficacy with earlier administrations effectively kicking the can down the road for the next holder of the Oval Office to deal with.
In this regard Trump faced tremendous opposition from special interest groups who profit from such free movement of labour. A compromise agreement - The Secure and Succeed Act (supported by Trump) offered a form of conditional permanent residency for some of these undocumented immigrants.
This included a 10 to 12 year pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients, a request for $25 billion in border wall funding/infrastructure security, limits on family migration and an end to the visa lottery (in exchange for re-allocating these visas to family and work based applicants) and finally various restrictions on legal immigration in the light of economic concerns.
The plan made a lot of sense and was in many ways more generous by a factor of almost three than the Obama era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that impacted 690,000 individuals. Trump plan offers citizenship path to 1.8 million immigrants. Unfortunately a combination of Democrats (opposed to giving Trump a victory at all in this high profile field) plus several Conservative Republicans holdouts ensured the demise of what would have been a possible breakthrough.
I suspect that a Trump second term would have seen both Immigration reform and Healthcare emerge as key priorities.
Race relations and Sexual Identity Issues
The media persisted with vigilance throughout Trump’s four years in office in attacking him for being a racist. He isn’t. Like the facade of the phony Steele’s Dossier and the partisan impeachment scam there was no real substance to this at all.
Trump actually made African-American Employment a key factor in his economic program. Often touting the success of such initiatives. His outreach to the Black Community was noteworthy and deserves far more credit. Trump Is a Champion for the Black Community—The Platinum Plan Is Just Another Example Of What He’s Doing and HBCUs Have A Champion in President Trump (HCBU =Historically Black Colleges and Universities).
Prison reform a key initiative in the African-American community was also an important program advanced by Trump. Trump is taking another stride toward meaningful criminal justice reform | Opinion.
In addition Trump made inroads with the Hispanic Community. Why Trump Is Winning Over Hispanics | National Review A realization that was reflected in his a strong showing among various Hispanic populations in the 2020 election.Why More Hispanics Voted for Trump in 2020.
With respect to gay rights I believe the world will be better for this Trump initiative. Trump administration launches global effort to end criminalization of homosexuality.
Once again he has been unfairly maligned here as well. Log Cabin Republicans chair: LGBT Americans belong in Donald Trump's Republican Party and 5 Big Misconceptions About The Trump Administration’s LGBTQ Record
Other issues.
Trump’s impact on the American judiciary has been very significant. He has had three SCOTUS appointees and has added a further 200+ judges to the various courts of Appeals and district courts throughout the country. Many of these judges hold to the strict originalist position that disdains the notion of judicial activism. The nation will be better for this.
In addition he has helped move forward with the United States Space Force initiative - a throwback to the Eisenhower/Kennedy era that will looks to play an important role in a future space policy. Trump Created The Space Force. Here's What It Will Actually Do.
The Administration’s positive work on Veterans Affairs is also commendable. . Veterans Affairs reform is now reality under President Trump. His pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to lower drug prices is also a vital positive step. I suspect that will bear fruit soon.
To many there is a belief that Trump has bungled the COVID-19 response in the United States. His approach here wasn’t perfect (no world leaders was) but it was far from a failure. I have discussed this at length here - Trump's Covid Response.
It is refreshing to see that Trump is now gaining credit for the COVID-19 vaccine initiative - Operation Warp Speed - Operation Warp Speed.
So if Trump is doing so well why not give him an 8 or a 9?
The reason for this is that Policy Trump (his strong side) does not gel with Personal Trump. Personal Trump brings with it elements that don't do him any favour. This is the side that includes the name calling, the twittering, the silly remarks (many of which were taken out of context) and his personal foibles that make him a slave of the ‘sturm and drang’ of the political amphitheatre.
Faced with a media that jeered both his good and bad and twisted facts to frame an alternative reality he sometimes had no choice but to resort to Social Media and direct communication with the people. He was after all shattering an establishment paradigm and in doing so one will expect those who are most susceptible to being toppling to fight back. They did. Their often circus like actions have in many respects worsened America.
source: Syracuse.com
Having said that Presidents need to be presidential and that includes swallowing one’s pride and admitting to error. Trump rarely did this. He also had a bad habit of selecting the wrong people for their respective positions and then throwing them into the traffic when they invariably failed to deliver. Too often he made this personal (look at the case with Jeff Sessions) when it needn’t have been. This was a failure of Personality.
There were also policy initiatives that needed follow through. I believe that he could have done more for the Environment. Paris was a flawed deal and Trump did the right thing by withdrawing the US from what appeared to be an insipid monument to virtue signaling. However in doing so he needed to have an alternative on hand and this respect he was was lacking. Environmentalism is not just a left wing concern, stewardship of the land, air and water has always been part of the Conservative playbook. Trump failed to grasp this. It was an opportunity lost.
Trump also missed the mark at times in articulating his trade policies. Tariffs have some utility (as mentioned earlier) but in the long run they are problematic. Trump often failed to clarify this distinction which allowed the media to fill in the gaps in a way that took a negative and cynical broad swipe at his overall methodology.
So in closing…..
Well Trump’s Presidency had a unique feel to it. He was a genuine outsider in the true sense of the world and made great strides in challenging an establishment consensus that all too often has taken the American people for granted. He fought back against elites from both parties and he took his message to the people.
While at times he fumbled, he also had many successes and it was with these breakthroughs that his presidency shone. He charged and attacked that which was not deserving of being sacred and in doing so exposed the vacuous nature of the media and the layers of ossified corruption that so suffused big government. He was a wake up call for a system that had grown comfortable with managed decline. Like the rest of us he was imperfect. He never could shake his salesman demeanour and was too often a slave to his own superlatives but for all his flaws I believe that he genuinely cared. He had at his heart a better vision of the US and he chose to act on it. Sometimes a champion of the Republic comes from the most unlikely source.
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