Nexus of Thought: What to expect from a possible Biden presidency?

My answer on Quora.

The Obama era on downers. Predictions are always tricky in that unforeseen events have the uncanny knack of relegating such time specific prognostication to the waste bin of what might have been. Nevertheless in a society addicted to punditry this is unlikely to stop us. So here goes.

Source: Ellwood City Ledger

The Economy - Figures for September and October appeared to show that the Covid-19 hit US economy was recovering in a V-shaped manner. Left to its own devices one could expect this recovery to continue as the pre-COVID economic fundamentals were relatively solid. However this could easily come undone if the Biden administration moves forward with unnecessary meddling and a roll back of Trump era tax cuts.

A stronger lockdown nationally will not help, neither would a 180 degree course reversal back to Obama’s regulation heavy presidency. Biden is very likely to face a re-energized Republican controlled Senate and has a very thin mandate to move forward here. Still, he may gain some time if the relief plan, which was held up in the House by Nancy Pelosi over specific wish list riders, is passed. The economy needs to be treated with kid gloves. The nation will suffer if the recovery transforms from a V into a K and Biden’s advisors know this. Practicality takes precedence over ideology.

Source: tax Foundation

Covid-19 - The Pfizer vaccine news released this week has given the fight against COVID a boost. Like the Oxford/Astra Zeneca and Moderna vaccines (which I expect to follow shortly) this offers hope. However the gulf between hope and reality still needs to be breached. The Trump Administration’s Operation Warp Speed deserves much credit here for funding such initiatives but I expect that they won’t get it.

Biden will use success here to spearhead his anti-COVID drive. As for his plan I am not sure what he can do that Trump hasn’t done (as it stands it is more words than substance). He has already formed his National Task and one expect Dr. Anthony Fauci who has emerged as somewhat of a secular saint to play a key role here. Fauci and co, will continue to push for more stringent lockdowns (despite the WHO’s warning against them) and I believe that the Biden administration - with the temporary security of an economic relief package - will embrace this.

However a full national lockdown or mask mandate and even if implemented by Executive order will almost certainly not pass the muster in SCOTUS. One can expect the case numbers to continue increasing nationally at least temporarily, however death rates will likely not parallel the ascent. Two reasons here - the virus is moving into the less vulnerable portion of the population as expected and the medical community has improved on its treatment protocols over the last six months. We are also less likely to see Elder Care Facility horror shows as was the case in the Tri-State Area earlier on in the pandemic (Andrew Cuomo ought to be investigated here).

Operation Warp Speed - The Accelerated Vaccine Process. Biden needs to continue with this.

Middle East - Biden would be well advised not to veer from Trump’s policies in the Middle East. ISIS is in full retreat. Iran’s meddling has been curtailed for now and the peace initiatives between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan ought to be cheered by both sides of the aisle. Biden could cap this off by cementing further deals. Most notably with Saudi Arabia and Israel.

However I don’t believe that he will continue down this pathway. For one, his foreign policy staff will likely be filled with Obama era hangovers and many of them were wedded to the deeply flaws Iran nuclear deal framework also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. While this particular agreement may not re-surface in its original I would expect a similar pact to see the light of day. The Europeans want it, so do many global organizations and without Trump’s opposition Biden will likely follow suit.

Also on the cards is more of the failed land-for-peace initiatives that have coloured previous US administration policy with respect to the Israel-Palestinian issue. I don’t believe that Biden will relocate the US embassy to Tel Aviv but I expect him to offer the Palestinians several other concessions that will further complicate this tinder box. Expect the situation in Gaza and the Israel-Lebanese border to flare up soon. The same with the instability in Yemen and Northern Iraq.

Trump hosting the Israel-UAE deal signing source: Arab news

Climate Change - Fighting climate change will be front and central of Biden’s policy book. The US will likely re-join Kyoto and at the very least provide lip service to the various promises once offered there. Whether they will make a difference to stopping the apparent global warming trend is extremely doubtful.

While Biden is unlikely to follow through about his pledge to roll back fracking/coal one will see a re-branded version of the Green jobs initiatives (Solyndra Part Deux). More regulations are bound to follow with the EPA taking on a strong activist role, although many of these will have to be slowly phased in if the economic recovery sputters. Biden and co. will do their best to back peddle from the ‘pixy dust’ manifesto that is the Green New Deal. If he doesn’t then we truly will be in for a dark winter.

Source: Tribune-Star

Trade - Biden will move away from Trump’s policy of using tariffs as a mechanism to ensure that America’s trading partners play fairly. The US will re-join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The various global trading organizations stumped heavily for Biden in this election and this is the minimum that they will expect in return.

The local US manufacturing industry will undoubtedly be impacted forcing the administration to re-allocate funds for the transitioning of many of these jobs toward the white collar sector. Do not expect much success here. If a national minimum wage is impacted as well this will cause further problems. This is another area where Biden has to proceed with caution. A radical transformation that falls heavily on the Rust Belt will doom his presidency to one term. Whatever happens expect the trade deficit to soar.

Race Relations - Initiatives here will be spearheaded by Kamala Harris and it will make the country worse not better. Most of it will center around identity politics with the divisiveness played out for political capital. Trump’s executive order in opposition to critical race theory will be rescinded and one can expect more aspects of daily life to be suffused with race politics. We have already seen this in sports and entertainment. Future targets will be the military, business world and the sciences. Unless GOP senators fight back there will be more censorship of conservative points of view in social media. That trend will not abate.

Some of these initiatives will serve as the Danegeld to placate race driven progressives (not to mention the foot soldiers of BLM and ANTIFA) but it will not diminish the racial divide. This is a tragedy in and of itself and it will sow further anger. An unfavourable outcome in the highly charged George Floyd case could feed into this ill feeling. Race relations worsened under Obama and I can’t see them improving under a Biden/Harris administration either. They have political utility as well.

Antifa driven Riots source: NBC News

Health Care - There will be growing pressure by Progressives to extend health care into a medicare-for-all-system but this will have limited success. There is far too much opposition in congress and I don’t believe that Biden himself is that sold on the idea to begin with. Nevertheless one can expect a strengthening of the Affordable Care and an extension of benefits that fall under this mandate.

As far as drug costs are concerned there may be some partisan moves to address this issue which would be welcome but Big Pharma, many of them who stumped for Biden this time around, may exert their influence in the opposite direction with a high likelihood of success.

Covid-19 issues will likely dominate the first two years of a Biden presidency, until this pandemic has subsided other Health care issues will play second fiddle. source: The Mercury News.

Immigration (illegal and legal) - Biden will go ahead with a broader amnesty for illegal immigrants and that could be rewarded in Congress. However he may have to make some compromises with respect to the immigration lottery. ICE will not be disbanded despite Progressive wants but its scale of operation will be downsized. Catch and release will become the mainstay. The Border Wall will unlikely receive any new funding but it will not be ripped down either as some on the left want. If anything it will be utilized in the future as a barrier in the areas that it spans.

Legal Immigration reform will not be a critical issue for awhile - not so long as COVID-19 looms front and center but when the issue does abate their may be a greater scope for foreign work visa applicants.

Illegal Immigration will continue to be a problem in the post-Covid Era. Biden will likely return to catch-and-release picture source: WSJ

Europe - Relations with Europe will improve under Biden at least on the surface on the surface. He is far more aligned to the internationalist agenda than Trump ever was and the political figures on the continent will feel less pressured to increase their spending in NATO. They have done well in having the US taxpayer subsidize their defense requirements historically and we will likely see a return to the status Quo. Expect lots of platitudes here with more and more initiatives incubated at Davos seeing their light of day on both sides of the pond.

China and Russia - China was ultimately the big winner in 2020 and with Biden in office they will see their MFN status strengthened It will be business as usual with the US unlikely to question Beijing on their horrific treatment of the Uighurs and other minorities as well. Expect more Chinese made goods, unfairly subsidized, to flood into the country.

Russia will continue to interfere globally especially in the Caucasus region and possibly the Baltics. Biden will be hard pressed to avoid involving himself in this show of force especially if their is a predictably strong neoconservative element dictating a more interventionist foreign policy.

Will the US have the courage to stand up to China over the Uighur issue? source: Jacobinmag

Other factors - A Biden presidency will likely be a reset of the Obama years. Many of the same people who worked for #44 will return to occupy positions in the new administration and they will likely bring back the mixed record of Obama era successes and failures for a second kick at the can. Biden himself lacks the energy of Trump and will largely delegate as opposed to lead. His backers and advisors will call the shots and herein lies the problem.

He is beholden to many interests - ideological, identitarian, corporate, big tech and interventionist. all of them threw their weight behind him to defeat Trump and they will expect something in return. Biden’s greatest challenge will be to balance these disparate agenda in the face of a powerful core of 72 million who voted in opposition to him. Hopefully he will resist the temptation to expand gun control.

source: Press Telegram

At 78 years of age all of this could prove too much for Joe Biden. He already show signs of cognitive decline and will be under immense pressure to deliver. I personally wish him well (despite the fact that I am no fan) as the nation can ill-afford weakness at a critical juncture in its history.

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Nexus of Thought

Sunday, November 15, 2020

What to expect from a possible Biden presidency?

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