The Wharton Study and COVID-19 mitigation strategy forecasting

This simulation from Wharton is definitely worth looking into.

Source: Wharton Study

It puts a great deal of the risk analysis with respect to re-opening the economy into perspective. Bottom Line - Four Key options (all based on the US). Deaths mentioned are the total deaths and include realized deaths so far. YOY= Year-over-Year.

Case I - Delay opening until post June 30th
- 117,000 deaths
- 18.6 million job losses
- GDP -11.6% over YOY

Case II - Partially re-opening (Georgia and Colorado model) by June 30th
- 162,000 deaths
- 14.0 million job loss
- GDP -10.6% over YOY

Case III - Full re-opening by June 30th (not a return to normal though....Swedish model)
- 350,000 deaths
- 0.5 million job loss
-GDP +1.5% over YOY

Case IV - Full re-opening. Complete normalcy.
- 950,000 deaths
- +4.1 million job gain compared to May 1st.
- All job loss % since May 1st recovered.