German COVID Study

Another one of those German studies that argues that infected rates are far higher than what we are seeing. From the Article:

Covid Study

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.

THE US has greatly ramped up its testing so the number now may be double 1.6%. If that is the case then the number infected in the Us is probably (as of April 11th)

(100/3.2)*522,000 = 14.5 million. Lethality would then be 20,000/14,500,000 = 0.14%. I suspect that the death numbers though may be understated by half of the actual value so that a lethality of around 0.3% is reasonable.

Season flu is about 0.1%