Ignoring China and Iran for now as well as Russia, I think it is safe to say that the death rate for those who test positive for COVID-19 is probably in the 0.1% to 1.5% range not 3-4% as originally reported by the WHO. This better range is based on several models out there. I would argue that 1% is a legitimate working number. The closed Icelandic and Diamond Princess numbers are valuable in this regard as well.
So how can we estimate the number of people who are infected with this pathogen? This is the denominator problem.
Test case numbers are way too low and vary from country to country based on the testing regime. They clearly understate the number infected. However the denominator is vital. It will help justify decision making on a go forward basis.
Having said that I believe we can ballpark the number infected using the death date.
Here is quick way to do it. Using coronavirus worldometer data.
Add up Deaths + Serious critical and multiply by 100. The 100 takes into account the 1% mortality factor.
Looking at a few countries
US = (9620+8702)*100 = 1,032,200 infected. Official 336,581.
Canada = (280+426)*100 = 70,600 infected
Italy = (15887+3977) *100= 1,986,400 infected.
Canada = (280+426)*100 = 70,600 infected
Italy = (15887+3977) *100= 1,986,400 infected.
Note these numbers include those who have recovered.
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