Saturday, September 8, 2018

How do we discover true economic theories?

My answer on Quora.

The tricky word here is true. One needs to decide what is meant by this word. I prefer the word reality.Economics is a social science so it roughly follows a version of the scientific method. One can theorize as much as one wants but if the Empirical evidence does not support the theory then it should be rejected. The problem with economics is that there is great deal of grey and safeguarding assumptions that are put in place by the respective theoretical proponents that are designed to explain away (almost ad hoc) the failure of the theory to correlate with reality.
To some extent this is part of the political nature of the discipline and the polarizing camps that have formed around each school (Keynesian, Neo-Keynesian, Austrian, Chicago etc),
Once economists move past the loyalty toward their school and look more objectively at the field evidence then I suspect that it may have more success. Right now it has more of a tendency to place the cart (theory) in front of the horse (evidence). This is not true of all economists but it certainly a phenomenon that I have observed as a casual follower.

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