The same reason that I question conspiracy theories about 911, Elvis Presley’s death, UFO abduction, the Obama’s birthplace and the Anti-Fluoride movement. There is simply a lack of evidence to support the thesis upon which their theories are predicated on.
Remember the burden of proof for any claim resides with the individual making the claim and as Carl Sagan put it “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” (although it is believed that the phrase predates him…may be associated with Pierre-Simon Laplace). This is often referred to as the Sagan Standard.
Carl Sagan Source: Carl Sagan
Now I am a skeptic to begin with. I believe that this is consistent with the application of science and is certainly integral to the empiricism inherent in our Western Philosophical tradition. David Hume’s contribution is invaluable here.
Having said that though one needs to balance this skepticism with an openness to new ideas. However in the final reckoning the value of any theory must dovetail with the evidence. If it doesn’t then the solution is simple - the theory must be discarded.
Now its not just the evidence that calls into question the merits of a great deal of conspiracy mongering (which occurs on both the left and the right by the way). There is more to it than that. These are some other issues that call into question the validity of a conspiracy theory.
- The sheer number of players who would have to be involved and indeed sworn to secrecy to maintain the theory. On a practical level alone this seems to be completely unrealistic.
- The tendency by proponents to move the goal posts when the conspiracy is questioned coupled by the swiftness in resorting to the ad hoc fallacy. For those who are not familiar with the term here is the logical form of the ad hoc explanation.
Claim X is true because of evidence Y. Evidence Y is demonstrated not to be acceptable evidence.Therefore, it must be guess Z then, even though there is no evidence for guess Z. Source: Ad Hoc Rescue
Conspiracy Theory Check List Source: The Conversation: In-depth analysis, research, news and ideas from leading academics and researchers.
- conspiracy theories are often self serving. They seem to exist to confirm the worldview of the proponent instead of adding objective criticism of an established position. Case in point is the fondness by antisemites of the Rothschild banking conspiracies.
- conspiracy theories under closer investigation often conflate fact with speculation. Certain events, which support a narrative are flagrantly overplayed while others that do not are diminished in importance are completely relegated to the trivial. Weighting systems with respect to events are manipulated to satisfy the conspiracy theory.
- They fall with the slightest application of Occam’s Razor. How Occam's Razor Works. This does not mean that the simplest explanation is always the correct one. However it all too often is. Conspiracy Theories without fail never pass Occam’s razor.
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