I answered this on Quora.
Mixed thoughts. I am not optimistic overall and I have to admit that there is a great deal that is disconcerting about both the earlier Singapore summit and of course the recent follow up in Hanoi.
Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump Source: Singapore, North Korea and Donald Trump's 'seat of the pants' success
At present though Trump is correct to walk away. By Failing in Hanoi, Trump Almost Succeeds | National Review
This is what bothers me
- Trump’s praise of Kim Jong-un. The North Korean dictator is a despicable human being. Look no further than the county’s human rights record or the way opponents of the regime or even those who have fallen foul of Kim have been terminated to see evidence of this. Kim doesn’t deserve even a smattering of praise. The fact that Trump used the phrase special relationship (normally reserved for the US-UK alliance) when discussing Kim is also cringe-worthy. There is absolutely no reason to stroke this man’s ego.
- I don’t like the fact that Trump is leading the negotiations. The leg work here should have been carried out by Mike Pompeo (and the State Dept) with Trump entering the fray at a later stage when many of the sticking points have been resolved. There is still a giant rift in positions between the two parties.
- North Korea has been playing the West for some time now. They signed agreements in 1985, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007 and 2012 and violated everyone of them. I have yet to see a single piece of evidence indicating that they plan to discontinue this practice of double dealing.
- Trump appears to be treating the summit hoopla as an opportunity to have a big win on the foreign policy front. This is a recipe for a bad deal. Obama did the same with the weak Iranian deal and was rightly criticized for that. If Trump follows suit, placing public relations over resolute foreign policy (that reflects American strength) his efforts here will be counted as a failure. Conservatives should be no less critical of Trump then they were of Obama several years ago. North Korea has not transformed just as the Mullahs didn’t at the time.
- Trump failed to take North Korea to account for the torture and murder of American, Otto Warmbier. He spoke openly about doing so in 2017 and has walked back this promise. Taking Kim at his word here, in his claim that he was largely unaware of the details of this case, is extremely disturbing.
However this is what Trump has got right so far in his dealings with North Korea
- The US can accomplish a lot that is positive when opening dialogue with its enemies especially if the National leadership comes to the table from a position of strength. Richard Nixon understood this as did Ronald Reagan, even if extreme caution is necessary.
- In order to improve its global image in this regard and improve its case North Korea did not launch a missile test in 2018. In terms of global tension this is a very welcome sign. However not all are convinced that the Trump factor is the key driver here. Kim Jong Un launched no missiles in 2018. Here's why.
- The US recently walked away from the table when North Korea pushed forward to end the sanctions issue. This was the right move by Trump. The US holds the aces here. North Korea needs to deliver first.
- He pushed North Korea to return the remains of American soldiers killed in the Korean War. They complied. US forensic analysis says bodies returned from North Korea are likely the real deal
- He rightfully celebrated the release of detainees Tony Kim, Kim Hak-song, Kim Dong-chul by North Korea. This was carried out ahead out in May of 2018. North Korea has just released 3 American hostages
- Trump has largely acted in accordance with the current South Korean government which is seeking to amend relations with the North through negotiation. Since South Korea is in the immediate range of fire it is critical that the policies of both the US and South Korea be aligned. For the most part they have been during the Trump era.
Where do we go from here?
I honestly cannot see North Korea relinquishing their Nuclear Weapon development capabilities unless the pressure on Pyongyang is upped by an order of magnitude. Its this single ingredient that gives Kim added play in the power politics of the region. He also needs it to maintain the strong man persona that he has cultivated back home.
If Kim is to budge here I expect that China will have to play a pivotal role. Beijing has used North Korea as a reliable irritant against the West and they have more clout than any other player in turning the screws on Kim. Trump may have some leverage with China with respect to the Trade negotiations but I am not convinced that he will make use of it with respect to North Korea. He ought to but there may be other factors that are at play here.
Whatever it is, this issue will not be resolved for now. One could make the case that Kim may be turning around as he has seen the ‘light’ as this article suggests but I think such analysis is premature. Editorial: Trump has many flaws, but he deserves credit for his surprising success over North Korea
There is a reason that the menace that is North Korea has dogged presidents since Truman and it isn’t likely to disappear overnight. Its better to proceed with caution and carry a big stick than to put pen to yet another paper that will be invalid before the ink dries. Let’s wait and see.
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