Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Some COVID thoughts

Ten Percent of World Population may have had COVID

10% of the world population may have been infected by COVID...This corresponds to 760 million people. The number of COVID deaths so far is 1.05 million. This gives a lethality of (1.05/760)*100% =0.14%. This is almost 40 times lower than WHO's March lethality estimate (4% based on Wuhan figures). It is still higher than the seasonal Flu (0.1%) but not by much.

The Global Flu Epidemic of 1918-1920 (the Spanish Flu) had a lethality of 4%.
The bad side of all of this is that until 70% of the world population is infected (5.32 billion) we could see another 6 million deaths globally. Assuming of course that a vaccine doesn't appear in the interim.


Four Theories are offered. I suspect that T-cell memory holds the key here. The other three are Immunity from Childhood vaccinations (pneumonia + polio), low levels of ACE2 receptors and Masks.

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