My answer on Quora.
Since the Second World War the growth of the Armed Jihad (which has all too often been infused with petrodollars) has been substantial. So much so that I don’t believe that we can nail down with certainty the number of these Jihadist groups that do exist. A figure close to one hundred is likely.
It looks at the troika of intellectuals and activists - Hasan al-Banna, Sayyid Qutb and Syed Abul A'la Maududi - who had a key role in propagating the Doctrine of the Armed Jihad (DAJ) throughout the Sunni Ummah (Islamic community) The story is rather fascinating.
Source; Sayyid Qutb - Leading thinker behind the philosophy of the Armed Jihad source:jewishreviewofbooks.com
Worth noting is that the DAJ in the form expressed by the ’Big Three’ is a Sunni movement. There are some Shi’ite equivalencies but it is vital to make a distinction between these two branches of Islamism. Shi’a terrorism is usually centrally funded by Iran/Syria and its proxy Army, Hezbollah who enjoy substantial support in Lebanon. In the 2009 election for example they won 93.1% of the Shi’ite vote.Hezbollah’s Influence in Lebanon. Their influence cannot be understated. Hezbollah: Revolutionary Iran’s most successful export.
Hezbollah are by far the most dominant force responsible for Shi’a terrorism although other groups such as the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO) have been active in the past. It was the IJO that was responsible for the attack on the US embassy in Beirut in 1983 that killed 64 people (including the suicide bomber) and injured 120 others. They were also involved in the same year in the Beirut barracks bombings that took the lives of 305 people (241 US military personnel, 58 french military personnel, 6 civilians + 2 suicide bombers).
As of 2017 Iran is still seen as the leading state exporter of terrorism. Iran still top state sponsor of terrorism, U.S. report says.
I have yet to find reliable information on the number of Shi’a splinter groups.
The largest cohort of Sunni Jihadist related groups are those that are affiliated with Salafi-Jihadism. Practioners follow an extreme version of the DAJ that plays an important role in the ideological underpinnings of Abu Sayyaf , Al-Qaeda, Al Shabaab and Daesh (ISIL/ISIS) etc.
The growth of Salafi-Jihadism over time is shown in the graph below. Unlike the Shi’a Terrorist infrastructure there is less state control over activities and a greater number of smaller splinter groups.
Source: (Data from A Persistent Threat, The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists, Seth G. Jones, 2014, Figure 3.1)
The Chief locations where the Salafist groups operate are shown below:
An excellent study of the extent of the Jihadist threat was published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2018. It concluded that there were four times as many Sunni militants in 2018 as there were at the time of 911. The authors of the report had this to say.
Based on a CSIS data set of groups, fighters, and violence, the regions with the largest number of fighters are Syria (between 43,650 and 70,550 fighters), Afghanistan (between 27,000 and 64,060), Pakistan (between 17,900 and 39,540), Iraq (between 10,000 and 15,000), Nigeria (between 3,450 and 6,900), and Somalia (between 3,095 and 7,240). The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat
The PDF link at the end of this answer takes you to the full report. I counted 98 Salafi-Jihadist groups. However as of 2020 this number may underestimate the number of groups.
One of the problems of coming up with an exact number for all groups (major and minor) is that they have a tendency, to split, reform, incorporate and amalgamate. Popular figures often create their own groups only to see them disappear as a distinct entity following the demise of the charismatic leader. Some smaller groups may only have a handful of members. The strength of the groups varies considerably.
Regional branches often develop into groupings in their own right. Alliances also shift. Many of which are driven more by convenience than ideology.
As an example, the Schematic below shows ISIS in Syria’s relationship with other groups including the Iranian backed Shi’ite Hezbollah. It is complex.(Graph source: KARA GORDON (DATA: MARTHA CRENSHAW, MAPPING MILITANT ORGANIZATIONS, STANFORD UNIVERSITY)
Fortunately ISIS has been in retreat for some time now. Its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdad was killed by a US strike in October 2019 but even before that it had suffered significant territorial losses in Syria and Iraq. However many believe that it has set up affiliates elsewhere. News of its full demise could be premature.The Inconvenient Truth About ISIS. Al Qaeda may also be gaining a second lease on life. Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again.
So a great deal is up in the air with respect to the exact number of Jihadist groups. The short answer is that nobody knows for sure although we can temporally ballpark the number. One hundred seems about right which in itself is a disturbing number.
Sources:
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