"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." Marcus Aurelius
The Green New Deal is a Manifesto and not a very good one at that. The great thing about Manifestos is that everyone can have one. Marx had one, as did Simon Bolivar (Cartagena Manifesto), Robert Peel (Tamworth Manifesto), the Unabomber, Anders Breivik and Charlie Sheen. There is even a site that lists a whole bunch of Manifestos. 1000 Manifesto List - 1000Manifestos.com. In the era of cut and paste, blogging and social media manifestos are in fact a few software assists away from seeing the light and gaining an audience. How to write a manifesto. | Alexandra Franzen
I have read over the so-called Green New Deal three or four times trying to find pragmatic substance to it and I still find it both wanting and dangerous. As a teacher it reminds me of a B- Summative Project that a senior student would hand in for a World Issues Course. Yeah it has all the platitudes and speaks to a lot of issues but has all the depth of a one inch deep pool of water.
Some pictures need no introduction Source: What do Earth, Mars have in common?: Today's Toon
However it is receiving a great deal of publicity. So lets look at what is problematic about the Green New Deal (GND) and why it is indeed so controversial.
1.The Green New Deal interprets the October 2019 IPCC Report (SR15) as though its conclusions are written in stone and must drive policy.
Be wary of the notion of certainty in the Predictive Sciences. .
The ever excellent Nic Lewis, who forced the Scripps institute to wealk back their major study on ocean warming - High-profile ocean warming paper to get a correction - provides a detailed analysis of the modelling used in SR15 explaining why the trending analysis appears to be running ‘hot’ based on observational data - Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.
The bottom line is that the prediction of future temperature based on mathematical modelling is a notoriously tricky affair (I have personal experience here as an engineer). It is fraught with uncertainty and should be interpreted as such. If you don’t believe me. Take a look at this.
The Blue thin line is the actual data. Look how large the error cone is. Which model works best?
Source: Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.
This is not to say that we should disregard the overall trend. I personally believe that the planet is warming at a moderate level and that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is a forcing factor. However formulating rigid economic/energy policy that has a far reaching impact based on deference to a certainty of consensus is problematic. As Thomas H. Huxley puts it:
"The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin."
2. Even if the Sciences nails the issue head on the solution proposed by the Green New Deal reflect a bias that favors ideology over pragmatism.
The report has a strong anti-nuclear bias. This is especially disappointing as Nuclear Energy is largely carbon neutral. Even climate scientist James Hanson likes the idea. China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power
However the writers of SR15 did not see it that way. Attacking Nuclear As Dangerous, New IPCC Climate Change Report Promotes Land-Intensive Renewables
The Green New Deal echoes the same ideology.
A point to consider - A marker that the issue is ideologically driven is the name calling and bullying that appears to have clouded the Climate Science discipline in particular. Source: 'Dilbert' Tackles Climate Science Absurdity
3. There is a hysterical element to the Green New Deal.
Much of this relies on fears of a great disaster and an apocalyptic vision of the future. However history regularly pours cold water on this. Climate change predictions have been notoriously awful. http://www.aei.org/publication/1...
Take the giant scare about hurricanes. Yes their impacts may be more intense but in terms of frequency increase this is still very much uncertain. Hurricanes and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Nuanced voices need to prevail.
In fact its entirely conceivable that the hysteria itself hurts the cause. http://www.aei.org/publication/c....
4. The Green New Deal clearly has an agenda that extends way beyond concern for the environment
Read the Green New Deal and you will see very clearly that it is a manifesto of Progressive talking points (worker rights, union demands, housing, social engineering etc) that have been deliberately inserted to sell the deal to a larger audience. It is a masterpiece of conflation, that is using ‘concern for the environment’ to market a broader rubric of collectivist ideas to a wider intersectionality. This is completely disingenuous. It is a political battering ram.
Take a look at these quotes from those in the know.
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“ – Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
Source: www.denverpost.com
5. The GND roll out has proved so far to be an exercise in deceit
Along with the Green New Deal came the Green New Deal FAQ, that appeared and then mysteriously disappeared from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s website. Fortunately what happens on the internet has a way of staying on the internet. Green New Deal FAQ.
Reading the answers here it is clear that Jean-Jacques Rousseau, the Father of Left wing Authoritarianism would be proud. Considering his work on the popular will this excerpt from the FAQ would certainly resonate - ‘It is possible if we have the political will to do it’ .
Here are a few more statements ‘The Green New Deal is a 10-year plan to reorient our entire economy…’ and ‘..the tools of regulation and taxation, used in isolation, will not be enough to quickly and smoothly accomplish the transformation we need to see’.
Who is the we? Is this the people or just a cadre of elite who know what is best for us and are representing a so-called ‘will’? Sounds like a recipe for overreach at the expense of individual liberty.
We have of course seen this before also under the guise of the knowing eye of the state. Five-Year Plans | Definition & Facts and The Great Leap Forward - History Learning Site. I will let the reader evaluate the consequences.
Worth noting is the way AOC and other supporters of the GND misrepresent the success of Roosevelt’s New Deal. The Mythical Banking Crisis and the Failure of the New Deal | Hunter Lewis. The New Deal actually delayed the recovery from the Great Depression. FDR's policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate. Buyer beware.
The Green New Deal will come at a high cost both socially and economically. The payment schedule is driven by wishful thinking and seems ignorant of economics. Wanting it so, does not make it so and messing with an economy that has been on an upswing for some time is pure folly. US economy under Trump: Best in history?
6. The Green New Deal has been endorsed by most of the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential Election hopefuls.
Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are all supportive of the Green New Deal. So much so for the Party of Science. The candidates clearly need to be synchronized with one another to win over a primary electorate that is rapidly moving leftward. For moderates in the party this must bring up a few flags as well as several bouts of head shaking. In fact on the National Level it has given the GOP the perfect ammunition to paint the Democrats as a radical unit. Curious to see how the Dems will moderate in anticipation of November 2020 when an appeal to a broader electorate is the only strategy for victory or will this just double down on this hysteria.
Source: An AOC Valentine
So there it is…More fun and games in the name of politics. However the GND is more than that. It is a blatant attempt to sell a Top Down Package of deliberate social/economic engineering under the guise of advancing the common good. Fresh Face or not it should be tossed onto the heap of bad ideas.
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