Daily laugh

Uber Leftist Bill De Blasio (talking about COVID) : "In this case I'll call myself a conservative. We have to be smart about this!" 😀😁

Staggered Opening is obvious.

The COVID-19 infection is heavily weighted toward the Tri-State Area (New York, New Jersey and Connecticut). The trio are officially numbers 1, 2 and 3 with respect to deaths per million and account for close to 55% of all deaths in the US. Other hotspots nationwide are Michigan (Detroit area), Louisiana (around New Orleans), Boston and the District of Colombia. Washington state has high numbers but seems further ahead of the curve than the rest of the US (Seattle was ground zero for the American outbreak).

A targeted US strategy for opening up the economy will likely be implemented in stages with these hotspots slated for the final phase. In a country as large as the US( pop. 328.4 million) there may be no other way to relax the lockdown and social distancing constraints unless a regional specific timeline is followed.

Canada may have to adopt a similar approach. BC for one looks to be further ahead in the COVID-19 death curve than the rest of the country. Same is true with Alberta.

Retrospect on Sweden...Some good some bad

Sweden's death rate (118 per million million) stacks up poorly against the other Nordic countries - Denmark (53), Norway (28) and Finland (18) but compared to most other Western European countries not withstanding Germany (43) it is doing relatively well. Spain (397), Italy (358), France (263), UK (190), Netherlands (183), Belgium (383) and Switzerland (143) all have higher death rates than Sweden. If it does better with respect to a second wave (could be the case with its more lax approach) the Swedes may have the last laugh. Its economy economic could be spared the brunt of a U shaped recovery that many strong lockdown countries are sure to face.

COVID thoughts

I wrote this on a friend's thread.

There is no doubt that we have to band together and place community first.. However it isn't easy in the US where individual rights are paramount. There are also numerous examples of where government overreach has gone too far under the auspices of national security . Woodrow Wilson's action during WWI (that were so egregious that it helped birth the ACLU) and FDR's decision to intern Japanese-Americans in WWII are but two examples.

It is also true that American innovation is tied into a recourse toward individual ingenuity. This has always been the case and from all accounts it is ingenuity that will likely play a key role in extricating ourselves out of this mess. The reality is that you need a dynamic fusion of both the individual and the community.

What will work in the United States is not necessarily the same as what bears fruit in South Korea or Taiwan.

On the Asian Tigers

South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have done relatively well so far with COVID but they are not out of the debacle yet. They also framed their specific responses in a way that would be inconsistent with certain facets of North American civil liberties.While I commend their approach it is important to note that there is a specific cultural aspect to the way other countries are dealing with this that is not necessarily transferable to the West,

Oddly enough the South Koreans have not been as forceful with respect to a national lockdown as we have. Where they have succeeded is in targeting and isolating the infected and adhering to an early testing regime. SK has been planning for this for some time as they were hard hit by both SARS and MERS.

Wishing them all continued success.

Estimating Viral spread

Written on April 6th.

Ignoring China and Iran for now as well as Russia, I think it is safe to say that the death rate for those who test positive for COVID-19 is probably in the 0.1% to 1.5% range not 3-4% as originally reported by the WHO. This better range is based on several models out there. I would argue that 1% is a legitimate working number. The closed Icelandic and Diamond Princess numbers are valuable in this regard as well.

So how can we estimate the number of people who are infected with this pathogen? This is the denominator problem.

Test case numbers are way too low and vary from country to country based on the testing regime. They clearly understate the number infected. However the denominator is vital. It will help justify decision making on a go forward basis.

Having said that I believe we can ballpark the number infected using the death date.

Here is quick way to do it. Using coronavirus worldometer data.

Add up Deaths + Serious critical and multiply by 100. The 100 takes into account the 1% mortality factor.

Looking at a few countries

US = (9620+8702)*100 = 1,032,200 infected. Official 336,581.
Canada = (280+426)*100 = 70,600 infected
Italy = (15887+3977) *100= 1,986,400 infected.

Note these numbers include those who have recovered.

Liberalism v Socialism

The difference between socialism and liberalism. My answer on Quora.

Liberalism values the free market and individual ownership of property. It is individualistic at its core and sees the person as a sovereign unit. Its key driver is the maximization of freedom (including freedom of speech, action and belief) within the context of the rule of law.

Socialism is a collectivist philosophy that rejects the notion of the free market. It is driven by the so-called Will of the Majority (or the Will to Power) and at its epicenter opposes private ownership of property. However on a practical level, it may tolerate certain aspects of private property ownership and the free market usually as a temporary provision on the road to some ideal. Various versions of socialism differ in methodology.

Liberalism is concerned with Equality of opportunity. Socialism values both Equality of opportunity and outcome. It is not adverse to using social engineering to achieve its goals