The case against Donald Trump from a conservative/right perspective can roughly be categorized into five different positions:
- Neoconservatives such as Max Boot, Bill Kristol and David Frum largely oppose Trump as he appears to articulate a position that is at odds with their notion of global interventionism. They also share a strong concern with former cold war warriors who take issue with Trump’s Russian and North Korean outreach.
- Deficit hawks such as Ron and Rand Paul are not at all pleased with the fact that the US debt under Trump is growing (even if they approve of his tax cuts). This was very much the case under Obama as well, however they would rather see a fiscal conservative at the reins of power, who will curb government spending.
- Free Traders (many of whom were once involved in the Bush 41 and 43 administrations) are perturbed with Trump’s use of tariffs. Are they a means to an end - forcing China for example to play fairly - or does he actually believe that this is sound economic policy? A tariff war with China from a Free Trade angle could have serious global financial implications.
- Some traditional conservatives doubt Trump’s sincerity and are concerned that his rhetoric will damage the conservative brand in the long run. I would file John Kasich and George Will under this category. Trump’s anti-intellectualism, in their opinion, flies in the face of conservative philosophy.
- There is opposition to Trump’s immigration policy from certain segments of the Libertarian right, as routinely expressed by the Cato Institute and the Koch brothers.
The problem for the conservative Trump opposition is that many of these points don’t resonate as much with conservatives and those on the general right, as much as they did in earlier times.
Neoconservative interventionism is widely regarded as a strategic and economic failure (even if it was well intended). Debt reduction is viewed as important, but not when it comes at the expense of job creation. China is seen as a nation that flagrantly violates the precepts of free trade and ought to face economic consequences, until it no longer does so. Curbing illegal immigration is priority #1 with many conservatives when one views the crisis at the border. Cato and the Kochs are seen as being out of touch with grassroots conservatism here.
While Kasich and Will raise a very legitimate concern (and to some extent I agree with them), they don’t offer much of an alternative. The last two pre-Trump establishment presidential candidates nominated by the GOP - McCain and Romney - were still savaged by the press and on top of that failed to deliver the goods. Conservatives have come to realize that they perform best when they take their gloves off. Trump knows this and does this.
One should therefore place this opposition in numerical context. 85%+ of Republicans will probably vote for Trump in 2020 (this was the case in 2016). While less than half this tally makes up his hardcore base, the vast majority of people on the center right/right will give the thumbs up to Trump for two important reasons
- He has advanced conservative positions on illegal immigration (plus immigration reform), SCOTUS, education, tax cuts, deregulation, job growth and individualism.
- The alternative Democratic Party has moved so far to the left that their stance on several of these key points is anethma to most people on the right. The fact that they are still obsessed with the notion of impeachment is not helping their case here either, as is their daily recourse to identity politics.
Yes, most conservatives realize that Trump is a flawed person. However in an eventual two horse presidential race, where the opposition is so unappealing he is seen as the better choice. It also helps that the economy in the Trump era has largely been booming. If it slows down by 2020, a whole host of questions will emerge, however in terms of politics the election is light years away.
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