Is the West in Decline?

My answer on Quora.

This may be one of the biggest geopolitical questions out there and seems as pertinent now as it was when Oswald Spengler wrote his Decline of the West (1918).

Oswald Spengler - Author of the the Decline of the West. Source: Philosophy of History Part XVII: Oswald Spengler and the Decline of the West

There are five schools of thought that I have identified here when researching this question. These in a nutshell are their respective positions.

• Better Angels (titled taken from Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined): No. The world especially the West is getting better not worse. Crime is falling, health is improving, people are living longer, science is on the march forward, superstitious belief is trending downward and we may indeed be living in the greatest of all times. There is no decline. If the west is losing ground it may be more of a function of the rest of the world catching up than anything else.
• Progressive Pessimists: Yes. Neo-liberal economic policies are amplifying wealth disparities and depriving essential services of the necessary government funding that they require. This has been expedited by Trumpism in the US and his tax cut initiatives. Add on to this the climate change crisis and the west and the rest of the world is heading for disaster. Society has to undergo a rapid transition to avoid what is essentially the inevitable. The West can be saved but it needs to transition away from market economics towards policies of ‘inclusivity’. Thinking of oneself as a global citizen would be a positive move. The End of the West and End of days: Is Western civilisation on the brink of collapse?
• Left Extreme: Yes. The West is declining. Let it collapse, after all it is racist, sexist, homophobic and was built on the backbone of oppressive policies. Long may it rot. ‘We’ will pick up the pieces afterward and build a new just society. Fuck You, Dying American Empire: Reflections of an Aging Anti-Imperialist
• Conservative Pessimists. Yes. Europe in particular has been transformed into a post-christian society that is a shadow of its former self. In the US the Gramscian walk through the institutions has wrecked higher education. Free speech is under threat, socialism is making headway and lax border policies are destabilizing the integrity of the nation state. Couple that to declining birth rates and the rise of Islamism as a political force, and the future does not bode well for the west. What is needed is a greater emphasis on the principles that form the bedrock of Western Civilization, especially Judeo-Christian values. Opinions as to the efficacy of nationalism in this area differ. Check out the links below to books by Jonah Goldberg, Patrick Buchanan and Douglas Murray.
• Alt Right: Yes. Decay is everywhere. Our systems have failed. Traditional conservatives are too ecumenical and have conserved nothing. What is needed is a return to a society that rejects the toxic brew of multiculturalism and globalism. In any case a white ethno-state is needed somewhere in the West.

So it all comes down to who you ask and what parameters they most value.

Here is my synthesis.

I think the Better Angels approach makes sense for half the story. The world is indeed improving with respect to health and economic parameters. One can credit science, market economics and the spread of democracy for this reality. Seven reasons why the world is improving.

However this is only part of the story. It is most obvious that the West is also in a demographic death spiral with respect to falling birth rates. Death Spiral Demographics: The Countries Shrinking The Fastest

Entitlement is rampant, education standards are falling and illegal immigration is out of control. Manufacturing sectors have been gutted by an outsourcing mania with power shifting away from the vital middle class to a financial elite that all to often appears as though it has no loyalty to anyone other than themselves.Culture of entitlement not limited to youth

A fixation with identity politics – both race and gender – has further poisoned the water and encouraged an odious narrative that has proved to be extremely divisive. Media spin has fueled this further. The curse of identity politics and the case for shared values - Openforum

Add to this a growing national debt load and and the markers for decline are apparent. U.S. National Debt Hits Record $22 Trillion

Across the board leadership in the First World is poor, but more than anything else most westerners can't even articulate what our civilization stands for. Is Western Civilization a Thing? - Quillette. While the US –the epicenter of the West - is still ten or fifteen years behind a moribund Europe in this regard its trajectory is likely to be similar. Europe Paves the Way for Its Decline and Europe is losing its soul.

The ruling class talks with an air of authority, however it often succumbs to the lure of a ‘Realpolitik’ that short-changes shared values for the sake of political expediency.The Arrogant Elite

Islamic based Jihadism will not bring down the West but the inability of centrist leaders to champion western exceptionality and defend the essence of what we have on all fronts will most certainly do. We no longer believe in ourselves and this is tragic. The decline takes the form of a whithering away. Niall Ferguson: why the West is now in decline

While we still have the luxury of the blinker world that engulfs the lives of so many of us we need to move against apathy and indifference. What is needed is a broad movement centered on the engine of the middle class that cuts across ossified party/cultural and race lines and places at its core the Western values of free speech, rule of law, rationalism, an emphasis on shared values, earned respect, and self-sufficiency. It is not too late.

Further Links

1. Oswald Spengler | Biography, Books, & Facts
2. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined: Steven Pinker: 8601300108858: Amazon.com: Books
3. Suicide of the West: How the Rebirth of Tribalism, Populism, Nationalism, and Identity Politics is Destroying American Democracy: Jonah Goldberg: 9781101904930: Amazon.com: Books
4. Amazon.com: The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam eBook: Douglas Murray: Kindle Store
5. The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization - Kindle edition by Patrick J. Buchanan. Politics & Social Sciences Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com

Can anyone who identifies as conservative or right-leaning make a case for opposition to Trump?

My answer on Quora.

The case against Donald Trump from a conservative/right perspective can roughly be categorized into five different positions:

• Neoconservatives such as Max Boot, Bill Kristol and David Frum largely oppose Trump as he appears to articulate a position that is at odds with their notion of global interventionism. They also share a strong concern with former cold war warriors who take issue with Trump’s Russian and North Korean outreach.
• Deficit hawks such as Ron and Rand Paul are not at all pleased with the fact that the US debt under Trump is growing (even if they approve of his tax cuts). This was very much the case under Obama as well, however they would rather see a fiscal conservative at the reins of power, who will curb government spending.
• Free Traders (many of whom were once involved in the Bush 41 and 43 administrations) are perturbed with Trump’s use of tariffs. Are they a means to an end - forcing China for example to play fairly - or does he actually believe that this is sound economic policy? A tariff war with China from a Free Trade angle could have serious global financial implications.
• Some traditional conservatives doubt Trump’s sincerity and are concerned that his rhetoric will damage the conservative brand in the long run. I would file John Kasich and George Will under this category. Trump’s anti-intellectualism, in their opinion, flies in the face of conservative philosophy.
• There is opposition to Trump’s immigration policy from certain segments of the Libertarian right, as routinely expressed by the Cato Institute and the Koch brothers.

The problem for the conservative Trump opposition is that many of these points don’t resonate as much with conservatives and those on the general right, as much as they did in earlier times.

Neoconservative interventionism is widely regarded as a strategic and economic failure (even if it was well intended). Debt reduction is viewed as important, but not when it comes at the expense of job creation. China is seen as a nation that flagrantly violates the precepts of free trade and ought to face economic consequences, until it no longer does so. Curbing illegal immigration is priority #1 with many conservatives when one views the crisis at the border. Cato and the Kochs are seen as being out of touch with grassroots conservatism here.

While Kasich and Will raise a very legitimate concern (and to some extent I agree with them), they don’t offer much of an alternative. The last two pre-Trump establishment presidential candidates nominated by the GOP - McCain and Romney - were still savaged by the press and on top of that failed to deliver the goods. Conservatives have come to realize that they perform best when they take their gloves off. Trump knows this and does this.

One should therefore place this opposition in numerical context. 85%+ of Republicans will probably vote for Trump in 2020 (this was the case in 2016). While less than half this tally makes up his hardcore base, the vast majority of people on the center right/right will give the thumbs up to Trump for two important reasons

• He has advanced conservative positions on illegal immigration (plus immigration reform), SCOTUS, education, tax cuts, deregulation, job growth and individualism.
• The alternative Democratic Party has moved so far to the left that their stance on several of these key points is anethma to most people on the right. The fact that they are still obsessed with the notion of impeachment is not helping their case here either, as is their daily recourse to identity politics.

Yes, most conservatives realize that Trump is a flawed person. However in an eventual two horse presidential race, where the opposition is so unappealing he is seen as the better choice. It also helps that the economy in the Trump era has largely been booming. If it slows down by 2020, a whole host of questions will emerge, however in terms of politics the election is light years away.

How was 20th century physics so successful with so limited amount of experimental data?

My answer on Quora

The 20th century saw the full scale development of both Special/General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Modern Cosmology, the Standard Model, Solid State Physics and Plasma Physics. All of these were driven by innovate and powerful analytical thought.

Key breakthroughs were indeed backed up by solid empirical evidence, that is a testament to the ingenuity of experimental physics. In fact from a practical era this was indeed a Golden Age as well. Here is a list of some key experiments and technologies that heralded the 20th century revolutions and indeed made it possible for theoretical physicists to take their models to the next level. Although one couldn’t acquire the extent of data that we can obtain today the brilliance of these adaptations more than substituted.

• Millikan’s oil drop experiment (1909)- determined the magnitude of the elementary charge (JJ Thomson’s experiment a decade earlier had already narrowed down the charge to mass ratio for the electron so that Millikan’s work proved to be vital as well for the determination of the mass of the electron);

Millikan’s Experiment - Can actually be performed at the High School Level Source: Figure 1. The apparatus used by Robert A. Millikan for performing the...

• Geiger-Marsden’s gold foil experiments (1908–1913)- identified the positive nature of the atomic nucleus;
• Ernest Rutherford and Frederick Soddy’s transmutation experiments (1901) - these examined the conversion of one type of an atom into another;
• Enrico Fermi’s demonstration of nuclear chain reactions (1942) - this is the basis for continuous Nuclear Fission;
• X-Ray Crystallography experimentation work by the Bragg team (father and son - 1915) as well as Rosalind Franklin later - helped unravel the Double Helix nature of DNA and other molecular structures;
• Invention of the Bubble Chamber by Donald Glaser (1952)- an extremely valuable tool in particle physics;

Bubble Chamber profile - can identify particles using motion outlines and careful application of conservation of momentum. Sources: Bubble chamber

• Stern -Gerlach Experiment (1922) - showed that spatial orientation associated with angular momentum is quantized;
• Davisson-Germer Experiment (1923)- Observed diffraction patterns with electrons (vital in the development of the notion of wave particle duality);
• Bell Test Experiment (1982) - Performed by Alain Aspect - showed that ‘ghostly action at a distance’ was indeed a reality;
• The science and technology around the family of particle accelerators that include - linear induction accelerators, betatrons, circular or cyclic RF accelerators and synchrotons;

First Particle Accelerator 1932 The First Particle Accelerator 1932

• The development of the Transistor (1947) and the various spin-off technologies around semi-conductors (opened up the idea of the integrated circuit and the microprocessor);
• The invention of Radio Telescope by Karl Jansky in 1932 (useful in the elucidation of key cosmological phenomena).

Radio Telescopes Expect the unexpected from the big-data boom in radio astronomy

Is Liverpool the most successful English team?

My answer on Quora.

This is definitely a two horse race. Liverpool v Manchester United. I am calling it a tie. Let us look into this.

Liverpool winning Champion’s League #6. Source: Champions League final: Liverpool crowned kings of Europe after beating Tottenham

Point to consider - I am a die-hard Liverpool fan. However I will try to be as objective in this particular analysis as possible.

League Titles - Manchester United has 20 titles compared to Liverpool’s 18. Arsenal are third with 13. United have also been runners-up 16 times compared to Liverpool’s 14. Advantage: Manchester United.

FA Cups - Arsenal with 13 titles are the most successful English team in this competition. Manchester United have 12 titles. Liverpool were late starters to the FA Cup (winning their first title here in 1965) but have a total of 7 titles to their name. Spurs and Chelsea both have eight. Arsenal and United have been runners-up seven and eight times respectively while Liverpool have lost seven finals. Advantage: Manchester United.

League Cups - Liverpool dominate here with eight titles and four runners-up spots. Included in this is four League Cup wins in a row (1981–84). United have won the League Cup five times and have lost four finals. Manchester City has six league cups to their name, placing them in second position. Advantage: Liverpool

European Champions League (formerly European Cup) - Liverpool has won Europe’s Premier tournament six times placing them third overall behind Real Madrid (13) and AC Milan (7). Liverpool also won back-to-back titles in 1977 and 1978. Manchester United have three Champion’s Leagues to their name with Nottingham Forest ranking third with two titles( for English clubs in this category). In terms of final runners-up Liverpool have earned this accolade three times compared to United’s twice. Advantage: Liverpool

Manchester United during happier times Source: Mail online.

UEFA Cup/Europa League - Liverpool have won the UEFA Cup (now the Europa League) three times making them the most successful English team in this competition as well. They have been runners-up once. In terms of trophy haul here they are tied in second place with Inter Milan, Juventus and Atletico Madrid. Seville of Spain leads this category with five titles. Chelsea and Tottenham have each won two titles while United has one. Advantage: Liverpool

European Cup Winners Cup - This tournament was originally contested by the winners of the various Domestic cup competitions. It is now defunct. Barcelona won the cup a record four times. Chelsea were the most successful English team with two titles. Manchester United won it once. Liverpool were unsuccessful here although they were a runner-up once in the 60s. Advantage: Manchester United

World Club Championship/intercontinental Cup- This was at one time a one-off game between the winners of the European Cup and South America’s Copa Libertadores (usually played in Tokyo). It evolved into a mini round-robin with other regional champions at one point (which very few people liked) and is on the verge of becoming an even larger tournament (which even more people are unhappy with). Credit United with two wins (one under the banner of the Intercontinental Cup). Liverpool are without a win. Advantage: Manchester United.

UEFA Super Cup - This is a single game (played in Monaco) between the winners of the Champions League and the Europa Cup (in earlier times it was the Cup-Winners Cup). Liverpool have won it three times compared to United’s once. Advantage: Liverpool

Community/Charity Shield - This match serves as the curtain raiser to the new season and features the winner of the League against the FA Cup champion from the previous season. Manchester United have won the shield 21 compared to Liverpool’s 15 (they are tied for second spot with Arsenal). Advantage: Manchester United

In the final analysis I will not include lower division titles. United have two old second division titles. Liverpool have four plus a Lancashire League.

Awarding Points according to the following system. Champions League - 8, League - 6, UEFA Cup/Europa League/Cup Winners Cup - 5, FA Cup - 4, League Cup -3, All other competitions - 1.

Remember not all silverware is equivalent.

The final result is…..

Liverpool - 241 Points. Manchester United - 241 Points.

A Tie and believe me I didn’t rig this one.

For comparison I calculated the score values for the other teams in the Big Six. They are Arsenal (146), Chelsea (117), Man City (83) and Tottenham Hotspurs (71).

Here are some tie breakers for the top two.

League/FA Cup Doubles - United 3 Liverpool 1

League/League Cup Doubles - Liverpool 3 (all in a row) United 1

League/European Cup - Liverpool 2 United 2

League/UEFA Cup - Liverpool 2 United 0

Trebles (not including one-off competition matches) - Liverpool 2 (1984, 2001) United 1 (1999)

So take your pick or flip a coin.

For those who want to go deeper there is always this. Premier League + 1. Division - All-time league table. Liverpool come out on top.

Source: List of football clubs in England by competitive honours won - Wikipedia

Do you know of any President or Prime Minister who has shown considerable wisdom after serving their term in office?Why?

My answer on Quora.

There are several examples in the US alone. John Quincy Adams emerged as a leading figure in the abolitionist movement and a champion of the sciences. He also served in Congress. The Amistad Slave Rebellion, 175 Years Ago

William Howard Taft became the Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court from 1921–1930. Teddy Roosevelt took to exploring the Brazilian wilderness.

Roosevelt in the Amazon. Source: Barbarian Book Club: The River of Doubt Theodore Roosevelt’s Darkest Journey by Candice Millard

Many had other talents that they indulged in . 8 U.S. Presidents You Didn’t Know Were Musicians | 98.7WFMT

However the one individual who stands out since World War Two despite the fact that his presidency ended on such a sour note was Richard Milhous Nixon.

Richard M. Nixon | The White House

Nixon resigned from office on the 9th of April 1974. His biographer Jonathan Aitken described him at the time as a ‘soul in torment.’ However his mood improved after he was pardoned by Gerald Ford on September 8th of the same year.

He returned to public life in December 1974 and set about becoming an adviser to Presidents on both sides of the political aisle. Richard Nixon advised Bill Clinton on post-Cold War world

Nixon’s specialty was Cold War diplomacy, a topic that as the father of detente he was somewhat of an ‘expert’ on. His work with China in particular was well thought of. 4 Reasons Why Nixon Remains the Most Important President Since 1945

Nixon wrote extensively in the field of foreign affairs. His book Real War (1980) looked at the danger of Soviet Expansion in the 1970s. In Leaders (1982 he analyzed many of the political figures that he met during his term in office. Other works dealt with the memoirs of his Presidency. In 1992, he wrote Seize the Moment (1992), where he scrutinized the role of the US in a one superpower world. He was extremely prolific. The last of his books Beyond Peace (1994) was completed two weeks before his death and published posthumously.

All told Nixon has 12 books to his credit (although three of these written before his presidency).

Source: ‎Real Peace

Real Peace Description on Apple - One of Richard Nixon’s most incisive works on American foreign policy, Real Peace argues that lasting peace can only be achieved through “hard-headed détente”—a pragmatic mixture of military preparedness, effective arms control, and improved East-West economic ties.

I myself am very conflicted about Nixon. His presidency will forever be tainted by Watergate and many of the decisions that regrettably expanded the conflict in South East Asia. Economically his price controls were a disaster, as was his strict embrace of Keynesian economics (contrast this to Kennedy). However his actions with respect to both the Soviet Union and China certainly eased tensions along these fronts and the fact that he acted as a valuable resource for other holders of the Oval Office is admirable.

One could even argue that his post-presidency was indeed his finest hours.

Further reading

Richard Nixon: Life After the Presidency | Miller Center

Amazon.com: Nixon: A Life (9780895267207): Jonathan Aitken: Books