Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Western History 148: What events followed Napoleon's disastrous Russian campaign?

A Sixth Coalition was assembled to face Bonaparte’s France in 1813. The coalition included Russia, Prussia, Austria, Britain, Sweden, Spain  plus several minor players. It was the largest coalition yet organized to face Napoleon.

The French Emperor responded by raising what was to be known as the ‘New Army'.  His forces acted swiftly defeating a Russia/Prussia army at the Battle of Lützen, however the French failed to take strategic advantage of this win . Later victories followed at Bautzen and Dresden. This momentum ground toa  halt though in the days between October 16th and 19th  when the French were decisively defeated at the pivotal Battle of Leipzig  (also known as the Battle of Nations). The New Army suffered 38,000 casualties with over 100,000 soldiers taken prisoner in the aftermath.


Battle of Leipzig (1813) source: emperornapoleon.com

With confidence the Coalition forces pressed forward into France winning fights at Brienne, Champaubert, Montereau and Rheim.  Paris would eventually fall on May 31st. Napoleon was now in the hands of his captors who sent him to exile on the island of Elba. Soon afterward the process leading to the signing of Treaty of Paris was initiated with the intent of restoring the pre-1793 borders.

However Napoleon’s exile was only temporarily.  On the 20th March 2015 he returned with a hero’s welcome to Paris. The Little Corporal was back but he would face an even more daunting task if he sought to recover his previous status. A Seventh Coalition that included most of Europe - other than France and Naples - was established to fight against him. Coalition forces were led by Peninsular War veteran the Duke of Wellington and the Prussian general Gerhard Leberecht von Blücher. It was in Belgium that the forces of both sides would collide. The early skirmishes at Ligny and Quatre-Bras though were inconclusive.

Napoleon’s final defeat occurred on the June 18th, 1815 at the very significant Battle of Waterloo. The French went on the offensive immediately with a force of 71,000 troops but they failed to break the British/Dutch line that was 66,000 strong. This brave defense earned the coalition enough time until they were relieved by the  arrival of 45,000 Prussians. A Prussian/British counterattack drove forward and  broke the French line.  There was no recovery. France had been defeated.


Field Marshal Prince Von Blücher source: ageofrevolution.org




Battle of Waterloo source: battleofwaterloo.org

Soon afterward Napoleon was forced to abdicate and this time he would be exiled to the British controlled island of St. Helena in the South Atlantic.  The  Treaty of Paris was signed on Nov 20th ending the era of the Napoleonic wars. Re-drawing the map of Europe would be given priority. This was the ultimate purpose of the Congress of Vienna that followed. Looking backwards historians classify the period from  Napoleon's return to Paris to the restoration of the Bourbon monarch Louis XVIII on the 8th of July as the Hundred Days

As for Napoleon he would die in exile on St. Helena on May 5th, 1821. Some have suggested that he was murdered by his enemies who were ever fearful of his return to the continent


Death of Napoleon source: shannoneslin.com


Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Thought for the Day

The pursuit of  meaning is more important then the chase of  happiness. The former endures and will ultimately provide the latter.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Great rivalries in sport....Sebastian Coe versus Steve Ovett

As a child of the late 70's and a teen of the 80's I was fortunate to witness the running rivalry of Britain's Sebastian Coe and Steve Ovett. Together with countryman Steve Cram (who was still more of the other guy) the three dominated middle distance running during this time period. Coe (now Lord Coe) was the greatest of the three rivals. Here is a list of his achievements:


1979 - Coe sets world record in 800m, 1 mile and 1,500m. He holds all three records simultaneously.
1980 - Wins 1500m at Moscow Olympics and is runner up to Ovett at 800m. Each won each other's speciality at this Olympics.
1980 - Breaks World Record in 1,000m.
1981 - Betters time on 1,000m. New Record will stand for 18 years. Breaks record for the mile twice. Sets time of 1 minute 41.73 seconds for the 800m. This record will stand until 1997 (it was broken by Danish/Kenyan Wilson Kipketer).
1982 - Is part of relay team that sets the world record in the 4 x 800m. The record will stand for 24 years.
1984 - Wins silver in the 800m (behind Joaquim Cruz of Brazil) and takes gold in the 1500m at the Los Angeles Olympics.
1986 - Wins 800m at European Championships. Is voted best athlete for the fourth time in his career.

Sebastian Coe source: european-athletics.org

To see Coe's amazing 800m world record run go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0e1yaMIM08

Ovett's achievements should not be scoffed at either.

1976 - Finishes fifth at the Montreal Olympics in the 800m behind legendary Cuban runner,
Alberto 'the horse' Juantorena (who won both the 400m and the 800m that year)
1977 - Wins gold at the IAAF World Championships in the 1500m defeating the favourite New Zealand's, John Walker.
1978 - Takes 1500m Gold at the European Championship. Sets World Record in the 2-mile.
1980 - Wins Gold in Moscow in the 800m but only finishes third in the 1500m. Breaks mile world record and equals Coe's time at 1500m. Breaks world record in 1500,
1981 - Exchanges world records with Coe in the mile - three times in 10 days.


Steve Ovett source: thepowerof10.info


Here is some footage of Cram vs Ovett in their inspiring duel at Crystal Palace in 1983.
ww.youtube.com/watch?v=X87JPlY8TkU

On Epistemology - The Study of the Nature of Knowledge.

I am prepared to admit with a sense of pride that I am a lover of knowledge. However like all those with a similar affection I am mindful of ensuring that what I accept as real knowledge is in fact exactly that. Philosophy has realized this problem from the early days of its Athenian youth

The earlier Milesian Greeks had more of a rudimentary understanding of epistemology and appeared to be more concerned with the nature of things - in a sense they were the first theoretical physicists.

A sceptic would have one reject all that there is and build upwards from a non-reducible point. For Descartes this was the working of his own mind, for others its the basic axioms of mathematics and logic while a third group puts faith (and indeed it is a faith) on the competency of sense. Many object to the three approaches altogether preferring an external metaphysical explanation that transcends both rationality and experience. However such a line of thought seems anathema to the Western Philosophical tradition that sees an explanations within itself.

In my thinking on this topic I have noticed that many thinkers are much better at destroying structures that have been built than creating sturdier constructs the next time round. In fact our philosophical tradition is inherently critical in a way that screams 'destruction'. Its no wonder that after 2000 plus years of bashing and building we are no further ahead in our overall understanding of some of the big questions in epistemology than we were at the times of Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. Yes, we have terminology and lots of it but are we much better for that?

This does not mean that all avenues of human intellectual pursuit have been so convoluted. Scientific progress is real as have been advances in other areas of philosophy (particularly ethics and politics) but I am still not convinced that epistemology itself has even progressed forward.

Perhaps it can be argued that epistemology is one of those subject areas that abhors an absolutist system of measurement. In fact it can be further articulated that its strength lies in cementing relationships between other disciplines, a process that indeed defies analysis based on looking at the field of study as a stand alone entity. This is indeed a possibility which I will investigate further.

Why I loathe Collectivism and champion Individualism.

This fifteen minute clip deconstructs the notion of collectivism and makes an excellent case for the Individual. At this time when freedoms are more and more under threat it is more pertinent than ever.



Western History 147: What was the purpose of Napoleon’s Russian campaign and what was the end result?

Napoleon invaded Russia in 1812 to force the country to support the Continental System - his trade embargo against Britain. Officially though he titled the invasion as the Second Polish War where he advanced the narrative of liberating Poland from Russia,

The invasion began on  June 24, 1812. When the  French Grande Armée of 680,000 men crossed the Neman River. While 81% of the soldiers were French this vast  military juggernaut had a substantial Polish, Austrian, Italian and German contingent.

Between the 16th and 18th of August the  Armée defeated the Russians at the Battle of Smolensk pushing the bulk of the Russian force into retreat. It was at this point that the Cossacks started burning villages and land ahead of the French Army in what historians have described as a Scorched Earth policy. The Russians would continue their retreat for the next three months.

On September 7th the two sides faced off the Battle of Borodino which provided a French victory. However the success came at a high cost. When the French entered Moscow they found the city ablaze and Tsar Alexander I refusing to sue for peace.

Six weeks later the French won another victory at the  Battle of Maloyaroslavets  however the Russians continued their policy of retreat.


Naploleon's Russian Campaign source: www.historyhome.co.uk

The Scorched Earth  policy was  working. An army marches on its stomach  and the French started to suffer from a lack of food and fodder for the animals. They began a long retreat as a harsh winter set in.


French forces retreating from Russia source: history.com

On the march back the French forces were harassed by Peasant and Cossack units. Hypothermia sets in as a mounting death rate took a heavy toll. The Invasion proved to be a tragedy. Troops of  the Armée  were decimated. 380,000 died  and a further  100,000 were captured on return. At the end only 27,000 soldiers  remained when the French crossed  the Berezina River. 

For Napoleon this was the biggest blow to both his prestige and military might and would encourage a new round of coalition wars. If ever there was a turning point on the road to glory this was it. It was the beginning of the End for the Little corporal.


Marshal Ney - One of Napoleon's most loyal Generals. His unit was the last to return to France (December 1812).



The Events of Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace are set in the back drop of Napoleon's invasion of Russia. source: the guardian.com


Sunday, October 11, 2020

How many Jihadist groups are there?

My answer on Quora.

Since the Second World War the growth of the Armed Jihad (which has all too often been infused with petrodollars) has been substantial. So much so that I don’t believe that we can nail down with certainty the number of these Jihadist groups that do exist. A figure close to one hundred is likely.

It looks at the troika of intellectuals and activists - Hasan al-Banna, Sayyid Qutb and Syed Abul A'la Maududi - who had a key role in propagating the Doctrine of the Armed Jihad  (DAJ) throughout the Sunni Ummah (Islamic community) The story is rather fascinating.


Source; Sayyid Qutb - Leading thinker behind the philosophy of the Armed Jihad source:jewishreviewofbooks.com

Worth noting is that the DAJ in the form expressed by the ’Big Three’ is a Sunni movement. There are some Shi’ite equivalencies but it is vital to make a distinction between these two branches of Islamism. Shi’a terrorism is usually centrally funded by Iran/Syria and its proxy Army, Hezbollah who enjoy substantial support in Lebanon. In the 2009 election for example they won 93.1% of the Shi’ite vote.Hezbollah’s Influence in Lebanon. Their influence cannot be understated. Hezbollah: Revolutionary Iran’s most successful export.

Hezbollah are by far the most dominant force responsible for Shi’a terrorism although other groups such as the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO) have been active in the past. It was the IJO that was responsible for the attack on the US embassy in Beirut in 1983 that killed 64 people (including the suicide bomber) and injured 120 others. They were also involved in the same year in the Beirut barracks bombings that took the lives of 305 people (241 US military personnel, 58 french military personnel, 6 civilians + 2 suicide bombers).

As of 2017 Iran is still seen as the leading state exporter of terrorism. Iran still top state sponsor of terrorism, U.S. report says.

I have yet to find reliable information on the number of Shi’a splinter groups.

The largest cohort of Sunni Jihadist related groups are those that are affiliated with Salafi-Jihadism. Practioners follow an extreme version of the DAJ that plays an important role in the ideological underpinnings of Abu Sayyaf , Al-Qaeda, Al Shabaab and Daesh (ISIL/ISIS) etc.

The growth of Salafi-Jihadism over time is shown in the graph below. Unlike the Shi’a Terrorist infrastructure there is less state control over activities and a greater number of smaller splinter groups.


Source: (Data from A Persistent Threat, The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists, Seth G. Jones, 2014, Figure 3.1)

The Chief locations where the Salafist groups operate are shown below:


An excellent study of the extent of the Jihadist threat was published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2018. It concluded that there were four times as many Sunni militants in 2018 as there were at the time of 911. The authors of the report had this to say.

Based on a CSIS data set of groups, fighters, and violence, the regions with the largest number of fighters are Syria (between 43,650 and 70,550 fighters), Afghanistan (between 27,000 and 64,060), Paki­stan (between 17,900 and 39,540), Iraq (between 10,000 and 15,000), Nigeria (between 3,450 and 6,900), and Somalia (between 3,095 and 7,240). The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat

The PDF link at the end of this answer takes you to the full report. I counted 98 Salafi-Jihadist groups. However as of 2020 this number may underestimate the number of groups.

One of the problems of coming up with an exact number for all groups (major and minor) is that they have a tendency, to split, reform, incorporate and amalgamate. Popular figures often create their own groups only to see them disappear as a distinct entity following the demise of the charismatic leader. Some smaller groups may only have a handful of members. The strength of the groups varies considerably.

Regional branches often develop into groupings in their own right. Alliances also shift. Many of which are driven more by convenience than ideology.

As an example, the Schematic below shows ISIS in Syria’s relationship with other groups including the Iranian backed Shi’ite Hezbollah. It is complex.(Graph source: KARA GORDON (DATA: MARTHA CRENSHAW, MAPPING MILITANT ORGANIZATIONS, STANFORD UNIVERSITY)


Fortunately ISIS has been in retreat for some time now. Its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdad was killed by a US strike in October 2019 but even before that it had suffered significant territorial losses in Syria and Iraq. However many believe that it has set up affiliates elsewhere. News of its full demise could be premature.The Inconvenient Truth About ISIS. Al Qaeda may also be gaining a second lease on life. Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again.

So a great deal is up in the air with respect to the exact number of Jihadist groups. The short answer is that nobody knows for sure although we can temporally ballpark the number. One hundred seems about right which in itself is a disturbing number.

Sources:

  1. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/181221_EvolvingTerroristThreat.pdf (https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/181221_EvolvingTerroristThreat.pdf)
  2. Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State
  3. What ISIS Will Become