German COVID Study

Another one of those German studies that argues that infected rates are far higher than what we are seeing. From the Article:

Covid Study

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.

THE US has greatly ramped up its testing so the number now may be double 1.6%. If that is the case then the number infected in the Us is probably (as of April 11th)

(100/3.2)*522,000 = 14.5 million. Lethality would then be 20,000/14,500,000 = 0.14%. I suspect that the death numbers though may be understated by half of the actual value so that a lethality of around 0.3% is reasonable.

Season flu is about 0.1%

Blaming the CCP

I have seen a great amount of negativity written about China. Much of this is deserved. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had misled the world on the spread vectors COVID-19 and in all likelihood has understated, possibly by a full order of magnitude (maybe more), its own death rates. Its action against medical whistleblowers in its own country is unforgivable and there is no doubt that had they acted with integrity here a great deal of our early warning preparation would have been enhanced.

Beijing’s influence at the WHO is an issue which will have to be looked at with once the dust settles on this horror. China has to take action in closing down those dreadful wet markets. This is not the first time that they have been the genesis point for a Zoonotic disease. Western reliance on supply chains from China will have to be looked at as will a re-evaluation of China’s Most Favored Nation Status within a global free trade economy.

However we must resist the temptation to throw out the baby out with the proverbial bath water. Dismissing all medical and epidemiological studies that come from China is wrongheaded and indeed anti-scientific. Like any study they must be evaluated on their scientific merit and despite the CCP influence in Chinese science I am still not convinced that all of this is bunk.

The CCP is many things but they can ill-afford to completely discredit their own scientific community internationally. The COVID crisis will pass but the burden of bad science is a stigma that will stay for awhile.

It is also imperative that the actions of the CCP should not be conflated with those of individuals of Chinese descent. This will have negative repercussions. Only a small cabal at the top has any real power in China to begin with and if anything it is the Chinese population that have been the biggest historical victim of the CCP (Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, Tiananmen Square and now the Wuhan Epidemic).

Also other countries with Han Chinese dominant populations have done rather well and been forthright in disseminating useful scientific knowledge (Taiwan and Singapore).

The problem is with the CCP. Let us not overreact and spread the blame further than it ought to be.

2020...A New Decade begins.

Well it didn't begin lightly. The US and Iran are at each other's throats. Expecting much more to unfold.

Is the GOP an Authoritarian Cult?

(Question re-phrased from Quora).

This allegation keeps popping up with the notion that if you repeat it ad infinitum you can somehow will it to be true. However nonsense multiplied is still nonsense. So let me let you into a little secret behind Trump’s appeal to the GOP voter.

Donald Trump is supported by the vast majority of Republicans as he champions policies that resonate with them. He also advances these policies with an enthusiasm that other GOP politicians can rarely match. It is as simple as that.

This is the same reason that Democratic voters rallied behind both Messrs. Clinton and Obama. I know….. It is shocking. Who would have thought? No need for the tin foil hat.

So what are these Trump policies?

• a tough stance against illegal immigration and other aspects of cross-border crime
• strong support for the Second Amendment Rights of Americans
• opposition to Late Term abortion and a pro-active stance in favor of the right to life
• a renegotiation of disadvantageous trade deals
• reduction of unnecessary regulation that stifle economic growth
• initiation of critical tax breaks that increase real take home income
• a pledge to revitalize hard hit US industries
• a commitment to enhance and refurbish the US military
• appointment of judges that adhere to an originalist position on the constitution
• necessary pushback against economic collectivism
• the establishment of a bridgehead in opposition to what Republicans voters see as the deleterious effects of the cultural wars
• rollback of ineffective Obama era foreign policy decisions regarding Syria and Iran.

All of these are highly valued by the majority of Republican voters and indeed most are championed by Trump’s opponents in the GOP itself. Yes there is an anti-Trump opposition here. There Are Plenty Of Anti-Trump Republicans. You Just Have To Know Where To Look.

Now this does not mean that Trump doesn’t make mistakes. Of course he does. I personally wish that he would be more conciliatory towards his opponents and give Twitter (as an attack medium) a break. Although in an era where journalistic integrity seems to be something of the past I can fully understand his rationale here.

Source: Tony Phyrillas on Politics

Trump has his flaws, like so many political leaders, but he is also more transparent than most. This has the net effect of needlessly creating openings for attacks. His opponents have predictably seized on this.

Yes there is a hardcore minority that have elevated his being to a larger-than-life status but this is not unusual. Obama, Kennedy and FDR all tapped a similar vein. In fact it wasn’t so long ago that No. 44 was seen as a cult figure.

https://www.investors.com/politi...

On the surface it seems that Trump’s hardcore base is pronounced. Perhaps it is a function of his populist origin or it may be a consequence of the realization that in the era of bland politicians he shines with a greater luminosity. Like him or hate him. Trump does have charisma and certainly offers a ‘Presence of Being’.

So ‘Orange-man-bad’ has appeal but why then are Republican voters - who claim to value integrity - not going after him with added gusto when he does err? Why do they consistently jump to his defense? GOP support for Trump shows no overt signs of cracking

Source: Ben Garrison

For that you can blame the Democrats and their respective sycophants in the media.

Trump take down has been the mode of operation since day one following the 2016 election. We saw this with the giant post-election hissy fit, the actions of the intelligence organization elites, Russian collusion hysteria, the Stormy Daniels saga, the conjuring up of action involving the 25th Amendment and now the giant sequence of hearsays that is the Ukraine Impeachment ‘case’. How is any of this supposed to be bring Republicans around? If anything it is doing the opposite and strengthening resolve. The only aspect that is clear is that the Democratic political intent is not about discovering the truth. Instead it involves bringing down or weakening a GOP president ahead of the 2020 election.

GOP voters see through this and will not play ball with a party that has been disingenuous from the get-go.

Is Bernie Sanders Far Left?

My Answer on Quora.

There seem to be very few radicals who view themselves as extreme. As far as they are concerned they are the ‘enlightened ones’ who see beyond the shadows on the cave wall. It is everybody else that is in the dark. The question is one of perspective.

However Sanders is not a fool. You don’t survive this long playing the system if you were. He knows that he has to be careful as he is trying to sell these ‘ideas’ in a country that has a political center of gravity that veers to the right.

Source: The Mercury News

So his strategy is to soft sell the poison pill under the guise of a benevolent and caring Democratic Socialism. Who doesn’t like Democracy? This is a game plan that he can live by. Collectivist political radicalism, since the days of Rousseau, is all about the will to power. The playing field and modus operandi is a means to an end. Sanders is a disciple of such thinking.

Why Bernie Sanders' Communist Misadventures Still Matter

Sometimes though it does slip out. The Far Left has a history of going off the deep end. Bernie Sanders’s Pro-Sandinista Past Is a Problem and Bernie Sanders: 2020 hopeful explains Cuban leader Castro's success, criticizes Reagan in resurfaced interview.

Yes even the uber liberal Slate occasionally recognizes this. Sanders’ Soft Spot for Latin American Tyrants Is a Problem

However Sanders knows where he is headed. He is on a mission to fundamentally alter the system and he loathes capitalism. Those who believe that he is acting as a modern day FDR, with the bigger picture of saving the market system in his heart, are deluding themselves. Sanders Distinguishes Himself From Warren by Noting That She Has Said 'I Am a Capitalist to My Bones'

Read his writing. Look at his history. Follow his career. Sander’s politics is all about the forced redistribution of wealth to fit an OUGHT. Discover the Networks | Bernie Sanders

He is and has always been a man of the Far Left but if he campaigns under that platform he would be another Eugene Debs or Norman Thomas. Historical footnotes at best.

Devious as this is, his methodology makes complete sense from a practical perspective. Even if he personally fails at the ballot box his impact has helped drive the Democratic Party from a seemingly liberal institution, to a woke chamber of virtue signalling progressives each trying to outdo themselves with their various menus of destructive policies.

Source: Rob.Rogers.com

Come what may Sanders will go down in history as the man who transformed the party of JFK into a battering ram for socialist collectivism. Even in defeat he can celebrate victory. Who needs an armed revolution when you can offload historically failed policies to an electorate that is seemingly ignorant of its failures elsewhere? Rand Paul: Why Bernie Sanders’ socialism hurts the poor as much as the rich and The Eye-Popping Cost of Medicare for All.

This is the Sanders legacy.

Source:

1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/o...
2. How Socialist Is Bernie Sanders?
3. Sanders in 1985 Defended the Socialist Revolution in Nicaragua
4. Opinion | A Rough Night for Socialism
5. Bernie’s Bad Health-Care Plan | National Review
6. https://www.washingtonpost.com/n...

What is a moderate in politics?

Another Quora question I answered.

It used to be someone who could entertain vital aspects of both sides of the political spectrum without jumping into the torrent below. In the reality of power politics today though it is someone who realizes that they need more than the conventional party base to be consistently elected on the national level. Jumping into the torrent may at times be necessary. Just bring your flippers and have a lifeguard nearby.

In what way does the Conservative Party victory in Great Britain impact the American Democratic Party?

Question Asked in Quora (with reference to Michael Bloomberg). My Answer

The biggest message is a political reaffirmation of the notion that when ‘you go woke you go broke’. Boris Johnson deserves credit for masterminding a Tory victory in the UK election (Get Brexit Done was a powerful slogan) but there is no doubt that his victory was given a large assist by the fact that the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, veered so sharply to the left that Johnson merely had to click and point. Corbyn was the contemporary version of former Labour Party leader Michael Foot who was trounced by Margaret Thatcher in 1983. It was predictable then as it is now.

Michael Bloomberg is correct to express concern (as has Barack Obama). The slate of Democratic Party candidates running for the White House in 2020 have taken the party on a very sharp left wing trajectory (cancellation of student debt, medicare for all, wealth tax, very relaxed illegal immigration policies, reparations for slavery etc).

They have moved the center of gravity of the party beyond the locus of the political Goldilocks zone and while this may offer utility in the primaries, it will prove to be a toxic burden when the bigger case for the Oval Office is made in front of the entire nation as a whole.