On the Iran/Israel situation

 This I know to be true

1.      1. Iran is an oil rich nation that does not require nuclear energy to meet domestic energy demand It has developed a  nuclear program that is clearly not intended for peaceful purposes.   We know this as it locates its facilities deep underground. No country with a peaceful nuclear program acts in such a manner. Iran is clearly trying to protect its program from a directed bomb strike. Only a fool would argue otherwise.

2.       Furthermore Iran has enriched its uranium fuel to the 60% level which is far above the peaceful use threshold. Left alone Iran will reach 90% enrichment and have the capacity to build as many as ten bombs. For a small country like Israel this could easily precipitate a national Armageddon should Iran follow through on her anti-Israel rhetoric with such a strike option.

3.       It has been working on this program for several decades and would likely have reached bomb producing capacity if it were not for Israeli executions of several key nuclear scientists and the debilitating impact of the Stuxnet computer virus that deliberately targeted its centrifuges. Israel though is running out of options.

4.       Iran has likely acquired assistance in its nuclear program development from Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan. The world is a wicked place. Tehran has threatened on numerous occasions to wipe Israel off the face of the map. It sees Israel as the Little Satan and the US as the greater Satan. In this regard it has been consistent.

5.       Iran has been waging wars against Israel and for that matter the West through its proxy forces – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Assad regime. However these forces have suffered severe defeats over the last two years.

6.       At present Israel has air supremacy over Iran and can set back  the program several years but it will likely require US assistance with stealth bunker bombs to negate the underground facilities

7.       Israel is targeting Iran’s nuclear and military sites. It has already caused a great deal of damage with these strikes and has taken out many of the leading Iranian military and scientific players in its state nuclear apparatus.

8.       There is a concerted effort by Western intelligence to drive a people’s revolution on the ground but the state authorities in Tehran are controlling the message in the country. The lack of an independent media in Iran implies that such dissent is likely being underreported.

9.       Iranian strikes against Israel have caused damage in civilian rich areas despite the fact that the vast majority of incoming missiles have been stopped by Israel’s Iron Dome and its sister technologies.

10.   The likelihood of Israeli ground troops going into Iran is very low. American boots on the ground deployment here look to be a slim as well.

1.      11. Pro-Iranian sources and their fellow travelers in the Russian and Chinese propaganda machine have ramped up the non-zero probability as a way of arousing sentiment in the West against a US assisted strike on Iran. The propaganda virus has successfully impacted much of the Left and a great deal of the MAGA Right. The majority of the American public though (whether Democratic, Republican or Independent) still sees Iran as a global menace that should not have access to nuclear weapons.

12.       Extremists on all sides have predictably stoked anti-Semitic flames to rally their bases. Google algorithms have not helped. Why is Al Jazeera (the voice of Qatar) so highly touted as an information source by Google search?

13.       President Trump’s two week pause on an American decision will likely buy Israel more time to further damage Iran’s military capabilities. Israel is also focusing on Iranian launch sites to decrease counterattacks on Israel.

14.       Attempts at a mediated ceasefire by the European nations will likely not achieve much unless it is bolstered by the United States, The jury is still out on how American diplomacy will figure in this regard. So far Iran has turned down all American attempts to force Iran to shut down its bomb making initiatives. The Mullah’s likely see the nuclear option as powerful card should the West force regime change as they did in Libya and Iraq before hand.