This I know to be true
1. 1. Iran is an oil rich nation that does not require
nuclear energy to meet domestic energy demand It has developed a nuclear program that is clearly not intended
for peaceful purposes. We know this as it locates its facilities deep
underground. No country with a peaceful nuclear program acts in such a manner. Iran
is clearly trying to protect its program from a directed bomb strike. Only a
fool would argue otherwise.
2.
Furthermore Iran has enriched its uranium fuel to
the 60% level which is far above the peaceful use threshold. Left alone Iran
will reach 90% enrichment and have the capacity to build as many as ten bombs.
For a small country like Israel this could easily precipitate a national Armageddon
should Iran follow through on her anti-Israel rhetoric with such a strike
option.
3.
It has been working on this program for several
decades and would likely have reached bomb producing capacity if it were not
for Israeli executions of several key nuclear scientists and the debilitating
impact of the Stuxnet computer virus that deliberately targeted its centrifuges.
Israel though is running out of options.
4.
Iran has likely acquired assistance in its
nuclear program development from Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan. The
world is a wicked place. Tehran has threatened on numerous occasions to wipe
Israel off the face of the map. It sees Israel as the Little Satan and the US
as the greater Satan. In this regard it has been consistent.
5.
Iran has been waging wars against Israel and for
that matter the West through its proxy forces – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis
and the Assad regime. However these forces have suffered severe defeats over
the last two years.
6.
At present Israel has air supremacy over Iran
and can set back the program several
years but it will likely require US assistance with stealth bunker bombs to
negate the underground facilities
7.
Israel is targeting Iran’s nuclear and military sites.
It has already caused a great deal of damage with these strikes and has taken out
many of the leading Iranian military and scientific players in its state nuclear
apparatus.
8.
There is a concerted effort by Western
intelligence to drive a people’s revolution on the ground but the state authorities
in Tehran are controlling the message in the country. The lack of an
independent media in Iran implies that such dissent is likely being underreported.
9.
Iranian strikes against Israel have caused
damage in civilian rich areas despite the fact that the vast majority of incoming
missiles have been stopped by Israel’s Iron Dome and its sister technologies.
10.
The likelihood of Israeli ground troops going
into Iran is very low. American boots on the ground deployment here look to be
a slim as well.
1. 11. Pro-Iranian sources and their fellow travelers in the Russian and Chinese propaganda machine have ramped up the non-zero probability as a way of arousing sentiment in the West against a US assisted strike on Iran. The propaganda virus has successfully impacted much of the Left and a great deal of the MAGA Right. The majority of the American public though (whether Democratic, Republican or Independent) still sees Iran as a global menace that should not have access to nuclear weapons.
12.
Extremists on all sides have predictably stoked anti-Semitic
flames to rally their bases. Google algorithms have not helped. Why is Al
Jazeera (the voice of Qatar) so highly touted as an information source by
Google search?
13.
President Trump’s two week pause on an American
decision will likely buy Israel more time to further damage Iran’s military capabilities.
Israel is also focusing on Iranian launch sites to decrease counterattacks on
Israel.
14.
Attempts at a mediated ceasefire by the European
nations will likely not achieve much unless it is bolstered by the United
States, The jury is still out on how American diplomacy will figure in this
regard. So far Iran has turned down all American attempts to force Iran to shut
down its bomb making initiatives. The Mullah’s likely see the nuclear option as
powerful card should the West force regime change as they did in Libya and Iraq
before hand.
