While the invasion of the Ukraine has likely not gone to plan I am not convinced that Putin is dissatisfied with his overall action nor am I under the impression that he will be the overall loser here. As much as I would like to believe that he is on the precipice of defeat I suspect that this may be wishful thinking more than anything else. One should always be mindful of believing one’s own propaganda.
In fact Putin may emerge from the quagmire with more power than before.
To begin with Russia controls far more territory than they did prior to the invasion. They have sealed off a great deal of the South and have solidified their position in the Donbass (East). The situation in the North has been more difficult from a Russian perspective in that their progress has slowed down by dogged Ukrainian resistance but Russia is not losing ground either. True, Kiev is holding out for the time being (as is Kharkiv) but if the Russians make further gains they can isolate it into a pocket. The situation for the city’s residents could become dire very rapidly.
Yes the Russians have undoubtedly suffered heavy losses (including some high ranking military figures) but I suspect that a great deal of this was already baked into the Russian invasion plans. Death minimization is not the highest priority in Russian strategic thinking and if ever a people has not wilted in the face of troop casualties it is the Russians.
The numbers (albeit terrible from a Western standpoint) are a small fraction of what the Soviets went through in WWII. Brute force with much death is not a foreign concept to Russian military thinking. In fact it is their modus operandi.
The sanctions are a tough hit but Putin has enough backing from China in particular that he can find a way of navigating through them. India may provide him with an opt out and he could always wash his oil through Iran and Venezuela.
Putin also controls the message in the country and if he succeeds in portraying himself as the savior of the Russian people (against intrusion from the West) he will likely enjoy continued support from the population.
The Europeans were talking tough about a week or so ago but will they be able to put their money where their mouth is in the long run taking into account their dependency on Russian natural gas? In a game of chicken they seem the most likely to blink. Already we are hearing noise of behind the scenes negotiations to reach a compromise to bring this war to an end.
Then there is the question of the United States and by extension NATO . How far are they willing to go? A NATO enforced No Fly zone is off the table and Biden has already turned down the idea of arming the Ukrainians with MIGs (which can be flown by Ukrainian pilots). The former makes sense in that it has the potential to greatly expand the theater of war. The latter strikes me as an opportunity missed.
Putin knows that as long as he can push the idea of a Third World War he he can force the West to back down. He is playing this card very well. He is counting on his opponents as not having the teeth for a full on fight and he could be correct. The refugee crisis will place tremendous pressure on the surrounding NATO countries and he can always use his proxy allies in Syria and Iran to spark tension elsewhere (look at Irbil one day ag
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