(My answer in Quora)
A break down in the rule of law caused by factional violence, stemming from the sentencing of former President Jacob Zuma to 15 months in prison. Zuma was found guilty of contempt of court for refusing to address the myriad of corruption charges that he faces in a state backed inquiry.
Jacob Zuma source: BBC
But lets back track a bit and take a look at the tragic soap opera that is South African politics.
The African National Congress (ANC) has been in power in the country since its victory in the nationwide election of 1994. While they were initially hailed by the majority of South Africans as a necessary and forward thinking bringer of change following the end of white minority rule, the party’s time in power has been characterized by high levels of unemployment, mounting violence, a faltering economy, blatant corruption, cronyism and downright incompetence.
This has worsened over time and in the absence of a unifying figure such as Nelson Mandela looked to have reached a tipping under the controversial Presidency of Jacob Zuma (2009–2018).
Zuma, a long time ANC activist,who is also known as JZ Msholozi (his clan name) was the one time deputy President of South Africa (1999–2005). He was dismissed by then President Thabo Mebeki after one of his advisors (a conman Schabir Shaik) was found guilty of soliciting bribes. Zuma would later stand against Mbeki defeating the latter at the ANC conference in December 2007 forcing Mbeki’s resignation the following year. He would eventually take over as President in 2009*.
In the 2009 national election the ANC re-confirmed its paramountcy in South Africa and Zuma himself was re-elected as party head again in 2012. However controversy continued to follow him. In 2005 he had been charged with rape but was acquitted. The sting of the charges sat over him like a bad vapor as did the Shaik affair with more scandals emerging with rapidity. The transfer of power from Mbeki had not been a smooth one by any measure with allegations of corruption and National Prosecuting Authority interference tarnishing the transition.
It was clear that the ANC had fractured along a political axis into pro and anti-Zuma camps. To make matters worse the Far-Left Economic Freedom Fighter founded by former ANC Youth leader Julius Malema, who had broken from the ANC, was siphoning off support with its Anti-Capitalist Pan-African ideology version of Identity politics.
EFF President and Anti-Capitalist firebrand Julius Malema (he is not averse to using anti-White racism to rally his supporters) source: The Times of Africa
Zuma though had a strong base of support. He was a member of the Zulu nation (the largest black grouping in South Africa) and his presence was vital in ensuring Zulu support in its Kwazulu Natal (KZN) stronghold for the ANC. As a people many Zulus harbored skepticism of the broader politics of the ANC, whose leadership had traditionally been dominated by a Xhosa elite that included Mandela himself.
Zuma also had a great deal of support from those on the Left Wing of the Party including the South African Communist Party.
Allegations of corruption continued to mount and he did very little to allay fears of a country in rapid decline. All sorts of motions were filed with decisions moving from the High Court to the Supreme Court of Appeals. Charges were dropped and then reinstated. With each passing day the situation appeared to worsen and it was clearly impacting the rest of the country.The roller-coaster of uncertainty was taking a toll. It didn’t help that Zuma made no secret of his close ties with the wealthy and unpopular Gupta Family who appeared to be profiting from their business and political ties with Zuma himself.
His use of state funds to extend and refurbish his personal residence at the Nkandla Homestead was particularly galling for many. The scandal has been referred to as Nkandlagate.
The Nkandla Homestead source: Financial Times
In February of 2018 Zuma was forced out of office and replaced by Cyril Ramaphosa, a former Trade Union leader, anti-Apartheid activist and wealthy businessman. He was also Deputy President of South Africa from 2014–2018. The economy which had been in the doldrums appeared to temporarily improve. This after a long period of uncertainty that saw the country change finance ministers, struggle with mounting debt and suffer the indignity of having its credit rating plummet to a new nadir.
Cyril Ramaphosa Source; The Conversation
On the 16th of March 2018, Zuma was charged with 18 counts of corruption and a further 700 (yes you read that correctly) counts of money laundering. The Zondo commission**, which was actually established by Zuma himself , would investigate the former President. They were building a very strong case but it wouldn’t be easy. Zuma had his supporters and the case against him was mirroring the power struggle in the ANC between the more centrist Ramaphosa and Zuma’s factional backers (largely the left wing of the party).
The Zondo Commission ordered Zuma to testify with respect to the charges. He skipped his first court ordered testimony on the 28th of January 2021, arguing that the entire process was a witch hunt. On the 29th of June he was sentenced to 15 months in prison on contempt of court. On the 4th of July he refused to surrender as armed supporters gathered near his home. Finally on the 7th of July he turned himself in and was taken into custody.
An appeal challenging the detention on the grounds of ill health was rejected as Kwazulu Natal was enveloped with violence between his supporters rallying under the banner "Free Jacob Zuma and shut down KZN" and local authorities. This has now spread to other parts of the country and as of the time of writing has claimed well over 100 deaths.
None of this is helped by the fact that Covid-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on the country both on the health and the economic front. Unemployment in Q1 2021 was 32.6% officially and the vaccination program seems to be stuttering. The Covid death number sits at 66 K with the overall case #s pegged at around 2.25 million out of a population of 58.66 million.
Where will this all it end? It is difficult to say. Zuma will likely be jailed but could be freed at a later stage pending health risks. As for the government it is likely that they will make more concessions to appease the Zuma bloc which I suspect will lay the foundation for more problems in the future.
One cannot be optimistic about any of this as the country is so engulfed by a culture of corruption and power politics that only a clean break from the ANC would likely make any difference. Since South African voters largely split along racial lines this is very unlikely to happen.
It is truly another round in the saga of “Cry the Beloved Country.
South African Election Results 2019: The ANC are corrupt but the opposition is not in a strong position to dislodge them. Source: BBC
Who will suffer? Most South Africans regardless of ethnicity. You can only milk the system for so long.
*Kgalema Motlanthe actually bridged the gap between the Mbeki and Zuma presidency but served in office for less than a year. He would however serve as Zuma’s deputy from 2009–2014.
** On the 22nd of January 2020 a court in KZN ruled that Zuma could be tried for illegal arms dealing with a French company.
Sources
No comments:
Post a Comment