This is a Quora Question. Here is my answer.
There are two components to this question. I will address the first in detail as it has tremendous importance in our understanding of the real time nature of WWII. For the second I will offer the German stay of execution at Dunkirk (1940) as a big opportunity lost from their perspective. To this I would add the Soviet defeat at the Battle of Warsaw (1920) during the Polish-Soviet War. Warsaw turned the conflict in favour of Poland at a critical point when it looked like a Soviet war victory was inevitable.
Battle of Warsaw 1920 source: Warsaw Institute
Now back to Part one…
The outcome of WWII was certainly not inevitable for most of the six years of fighting. The definitive resolution of the war appeared more likely once certain outcomes became a reality but even then it was always possible that a stalemate or more likely a Pyrrhic win could be clutched from the jaws of victory.
There was nothing easy about WWII. It involved an immense amount of sacrifice and although the Allies enjoyed an advantage in raw materials and manufacturing output, especially when the Americans joined the effort, there were absolutely no military or political ‘gimmes’ here. Strategic miscalculations would be paid for in blood and enough losses could cripple any campaign.
Hindsight allows many to speak with extended hubris decades removed but for those living during this dark and dreary period the war’s trajectory at several points in time was not positive. Far from it in fact.
Lets look at how the global situation appeared on October 1st 1941. At this stage of the war Germany had De Facto control of Bohemia/Moravia, Belgium, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Poland. German forces had also consolidated their hegemony in Greece (including Crete) and Yugoslavia. On top of that the Nazis had allies/puppet states in Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia and Vichy France (with most most of her colonies in Africa and South East Asia).
The Wehrmacht had seen one success after another. It had bulldozed all opposition and had vastly outperformed earlier German forces of the WWI vintage with innovative military attacks and a necessary daring that had demonstrated the effectiveness of an integrated mechanized approach.
While the Battle of Britain had offered a much needed respite from the litany of German successes and certainly handicapped the Luftwaffe elsewhere the situation was far from well for the British.
German submarine Wolfpacks and other Kriegsmarine attacks continued to wreak havoc with enemy shipping with the allies suffering 53 ship losses in September 1941 alone up from 25 the month before and 23 in July. While it is true that this number was lower than levels recorded on a monthly rate for the first half of 1941 German attacks here were taking a heavy toll on Allied Shipping. Victory in the Battle of Atlantic was far from over and it greatly concerned Churchill and the war cabinet of the vulnerable island nation. (Shipping losses in terms of pure tonnage would almost triple in 1942 compared to the 1941 high point marks).
German U-boat submarine source: Britannica
In the Soviet Union Operation Barbarossa launched on June 22nd 1941 was looking to be a success. German forces had hit the Soviet Union with a three pronged attack (north, center and south). Vilnius (Lithuania) had fallen and the Soviets had suffered heavy losses of around 300,000 at Minsk/Bialystock, following encirclement by German troops on June 28th.
In July the Germans would capture Vitebsk (Belarus) opening up the road to Smolensk (which fell in September) and with that the gateway to Moscow for the Panzer corps. Further pockets (Bryansk and Vyazma) were destined to collapse as the Soviets scrambled to balance its forces.
Operation Barbarossa source: Military Wiki
Latvia and Estonia had in short order fallen under German control as had the rest of Poland before that. Leningrad was under siege as Army Group North consolidated the noose on the Baltic Sea coast.
In the South the situation was not much better. The Germans, had taken Kiev, the third largest city in the Soviet Union, by the 26th of September with Odessa slated to fall soon (it did in mid October). The Germans were poised to take the Crimean Peninsula as well. This meant that the road to the Caucasus region would likely open up and with it a smorgasbord of resources for the German War machine.
While it is true that the Allies had enjoyed success in North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and certainly East Africa against Mussolini’s Italian forces, Desert Fox Erwin Rommel’s arrival in Libya in February 1941 predictably coincided with an obvious reversal of fortunes.
Axis forces in Operation Sonneblume rolled back Allied gains retaking Benghazi and Msus which was then followed up by victories at Derna, Mechili and Halifya Pass. Tobruk was besieged by Afrika Korp troops on April 10th and would not be relieved until November 27th. German air attacks targeted Cairo as the pivotal British island position in Malta strained under the wrath of further Luftwaffe bombings.
If Malta fell it would severely weakens British clout in the Mediterranean thereby endangering the supply lines supporting the 8th Army. A British loss in North Africa would threaten the Suez Canal gateway and the road to the Middle East and India. The British had consolidated their position in Syria and Iraq (reversing a pro-Axis coup) but those gains may not have held in the face of a German thrust from the west.
With respect to Japan it did not look much better for the Allies. Although Chinese Nationalist forces had bravely held on to the Changsha focal point against waves of Imperial Japanese force, they and their Communist allie,s had failed to dislodge the Japanese forces in the North.
Also the presence of the Vichy government in French Indochina (modern day Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia) and a sympathetic regime in Thailand was threatening the British flank in Burma and with that the valuable supply line routes through Rangoon to China that Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces so heavily relied on.
Japan would soon over the next six months following Pearl Harbor significantly expand the territory under her control. source: valkswordwarii
The Japanese were also turning their attention to Malaya Peninsula and the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) to buttress their endless quest for resources (oil, timber, rubber, rice and tin). Both looked ripe for the picking and would prove so over the next six months.
Yes it looked grim and it if weren’t for the failure of the German attempt at taking Moscow (October 1941-January 1942) it may have looked even worse. Japan ran rampant in the East after Pearl Harbor and until the Battle of the Coral Sea, Guadalcanal and of course Midway, the US was largely playing catch up. The Japanese could never be taken lightly. Their victory at the Battle of the Java Sea (February 1942) is testament to this.
In short there was nothing inevitable about the war in 1941. Nor was that the case until late 1943 at the very earliest (and even with that I would add a great deal of hindsight).
Axis success was overturned but the cost in lives was immense. Those who fought to ensure Allied success are most certainly worthy of the credit given.
Source:
https://www.naval-history.net/WW2CampaignsAtlanticDev.htm
No comments:
Post a Comment