Polling Heuristrics

There is no fool proof methodology for looking at Polls but in the US elections I find that the following heuristics, that I employed successfully for Election 2024, has utility.

1. Use poll averages such as the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average as opposed to a single poll to make a judgement call. Add 2% to the RCP average for GOP candidates as the polls routinely under sample Republicans. Polls also appear to over sample urban voters.
2. Ignore polls taken a few days before an election. Many of these are push polls with questionable metrics.
3. Presidential approval and disapproval polls are as a rule better indicators than polls that ask one to choose a specific candidate.
4. Economic metrics are the single best predictor of election results. However don’t fall for the trap of the official metrics. The question here that most MATTERS is… What does the average person feel/think about the economy?
5. Polling questions about the direction that a country is moving in (good or bad?) are also great indicators of election results.
6. Don’t fall for talking heads who tell you that the election is done (one way or another) after a single event. In times they routinely walk these back.
7. Polls taken after a debate generally don’t hold up in the long run. These are particularly driven by media spin. The same is true of polls taken after party conventions.
8. Talking to likely voters as opposed to all voter samples will provide better results.

Thoughts on the US Election

 I decided to let the dust settle (somewhat anyway) before I expand on my thoughts with respect to the 2024 US Presidential election. Almost three weeks on and it looks as though the air is starting to clear (although for the love of G-d how long does it take to count votes in California?). So here goes:

1.The result was not a shock to me at all. In fact it was easy to predict if you tracked the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Polls Average. I got 49 out of the 50 states correct by taking the RCP average and adding 2% to Trump. As a rule of thumb this worked well in 2020 as well. The only state I missed on was Michigan as I thought Harris would sneak it once the Detroit voter dump came in. Takeaway - Always go with Poll averages. Never trust a single poll.

2.The Legacy media (with the sole exception of Fox) were in the tank for Harris and once again underestimated Trump’s support on the grassroots level I am looking at you Allan Lichtman). They typically deferred to their models and favored pollsters over an objective look at base level sentiments. Yes…the elites didn’t get it. Screwing the pooch once again.

3.The notion that the economy looks sound on paper is meaningless if this does not translate or align with the experience of your typical person, who has found their cost of living severely hampered by four years of high inflation. Soaring stock market prices (sorry armchair investors) aren’t a good indicator of the home front stranglehold hurting Mr. and Ms. Joe and Mary Average. Elites focus on this metric, to their predictive detriment.

4. Trump won on three issues that were germane to the majority of American voters A. The Cost of Living Problem B. A border and illegal immigration situation that appears to be out of control (Harris as border Czar was worse than a disaster) C. Biden’s and by extension Harris’ foreign policy FAIL that echo a declining US. The Democrats doubling down on Woke and DEI policies was also a losing issue for the Donks.

5. Suppression Polls such as the one posted by the Des Moines Register prior to the election were exposed for the ‘joke’ that they were. How an academic with a long established record of excellence (Ann Selzer) can attach her name to this is beyond. This was a tutorial on career implosion.

6. Trump increased his percentage votes won in every state of the Union. The voting gaps in Texas, Ohio and Florida increased in favor of the GOP. Those in California and New York saw significant Dem percentage drops.

7. Tim Walz added nothing to the Harris ticket. He came across as a bundling buffoon. Josh Shapiro may have secured Pennsylvania but I am not convinced he would have turned this election around in favor of Harris. She was intrinsically a poor candidate and a terrible speaker.

8.The hidden army of women angry about abortion (which has now become more of a state issue) did not materialize. This was another example of more wishful thinking by the legacy media.

9. Trump won the White vote and narrowly lost the Latino vote to Harris. However the GOP is surging with the latter and could well win it in a future election. Falling percentage numbers with the African-American votes (especially among Black males) is a growing concern for Democrats.

10. Once again Barack Obama could not use his personal appeal to resurrect a Candidate. He failed with HRC and was even less successful with Kamala Harris.

11. I am not convinced the Democrats would have done better with Joe Biden at all (Trump would probably have won close to 400 electoral college votes in my opinion). However the party faithful need to take a close look as to how their nomination process was hijacked by its elites. Kamala Harris was parachuted into a position that she was clearly not deserving of by a stench that echoes a coup. For a party that claims to champion democracy the hypocrisy here was on full view.

12. Kamala Harris failed as well as she could not relate to many Americans. Yes she ticked off several intersectional boxes but performed poorly on interviews, talked with garbled language and vacillated in her message. She ran initially with the vacuous sentiment of joy and positivity and then pivoted dramatically to the ’Trump is a Fascist’ negativity trope when her numbers started plummeting. This exuded desperation. At the end of the day a significant number of swing voters did not believe that she had shaken off her far left voting record in the Senate.

13. The Dems need to get their act together for the next election. They have to abandon Intersectional Identity politics and talk to the voters (especially working Americans) in a way that is not condescending and elitist. Will they do this? I doubt it. Their current rhetoric is still focused on blaming the voter.

14. The GOP has control of both the House and the Senate. The majority in the former is still very close but they have added leeway in the Upper House. The next two years must be filled with necessary legislation and decisive leadership that actively turns America around from the moribund status that it has found itself under four years of the Biden administration.

Like

Comment

Share

Reflections XII - Distlling reality

By forcing large segments of the population into poverty the growth of the state and the required dependency by so many on it, is ensured. The vote base is captured.

In and of itself discrimination isn’t essentially a bad idea. It depends on the nuances of the discrimination. Noxious ideologies and policies should indeed be relegated to the historical scrap heap.

A corrupt society will create legions of incompetents. It is these incompetents who sustain the hierarchy by not questioning the controllers at the top. They cannot afford to do so.

 Every dictator is aware that humans are social animals. Therefore they use their power to ostracize and isolate their opponents frequently.

A quick Quora Question that I answered

Is it possible for all countries to coexist without one being considered the "leader" of the free world? Is there an alternative to having a dominant country in global affairs?

Yes (in theory) if the country’s agree to live up to their military and strategic responsibilities to defend and act as the arsenal of the free world. This hasn’t been the case since World War Two with the European nations in particular outsourcing their responsibilities to the US.

As for the second question, this is possible if you have a genuine balance of power however a quick reading of history will tell you that in the long run such an equilibrium tends to instability as the dynamics of international affair easily shock the system.