10 Take aways from the Trump Assassination Attempt

1. Donald Trump was extremely lucky. A few centimeters left and it could have been game over for the former President.

2. Two big questions need to be answered: a) How was the gunman able to position himself so close to Trump? b) Why did the police drones not pick him up?

3. Even more important....A  'few centimeters' is what saved not only Trump but the nation from a full on violent flare up.

4. Trump showed tremenendous Bravado. The picture of him, with fist in the air, rising from the ground will become an iconic image in American history.

5. The extreme rhetoric generated by Trump haters in the media and elsewhere likely motivated the gunman to act. For now his full motive remains unclear.

6. Trump will receive a natural boost in the polls but I am not so sure this will continue until November. The Dem aligned media will do their best to shift focus elsewhere...likely to the strawman Project 2025 issue.

7. The 'staged' conspiracy theory breaks down rather rapidly under any modicum of critical thought. The same is true of the 'CIA did it' notion.

8. Security protection around both Messrs Trump and RFK Jr needs to be upped.

9. Joe Biden, to his credit, looked somewhat presidential in renouncing the violence.

10. Trump needs to continue building on his momentum. The dismissal of the stored reccords case in Florida will help as was his popular pick for VP (J D Vance)

Who is gaining the upper hand in world politics - the US or Russia?

 My answer on Quora.

The US has the upper hand for now. How long this will continue is uncertain. It has a substantially larger economy than Russia and a greater global presence on a military level (750 bases plus in 80 countries or so). In addition the US dollar still remains as the predominant world currency (buoyed for now by petrodollars).

Russia on the other hand has been hit hard by sanctions, is navigating an extremely costly war with the Ukraine and is in an uncertain population decline. It has its allies within the BRICS grouping to fall back onto but even in this regard it is playing second fiddle to both China and an emerging India (who took Russia to the cleaners for cheap oil following the Ukrainian invasion).

Did France lose every war they fought over the last hundred years?

(My answer in Quora)

No, the Free French with immense Allied support emerged on the victorious side of WWII. France give or take some hair raising moments was also on the right side of the winning divide during the Cold War. Having said that the French were humiliated in the 1950s in its struggle to maintain control of French Indochina (check out the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954) and suffered defeat (somewhat self-inflicted) in the Algerian War (1954–1962). 

Nevertheless France did secure victory for Chadian forces in its war against Libya (1978–1987) and helped defeat Islamist insurgents in Mali (2013–2014) during Operation Serval. France in Alliance with Britain and Israel defeated the Egyptians tactically in the Suez Canal War (1956) but like its Allies was lulled into a strategic ‘defeated’ by the US who feared the broader ramifications of a direct war with the Soviet Union at the time.

Is Jill Biden another Edith Wilson?

 My answer on Quora

No. I think that she has less influence than many people give her credit for. Joe Biden, although suffering from obvious cerebral decline, clearly wants to stay in power himself. I am not convinced at all that he has lost agency in this regard. Edith Wilson played a large role in the day-to-day management of the country as her husband ailed. For Biden this role is largely being carried out by the team around him, many of whom are Barack Obama loyalists.

Thoughts on the British Election

 1. The vote was more of a referendum vote against the Tories as opposed to an endorsement of the Labour Party.

 2. Since they failed on several fronts including a strong stance dealing with the migration crisis, the fate of the Conservatives was essentially sealed and well deserved. 

 3. The splitting of the right of center vote between the Conservative and Reform Parties essentially amplified Labour's seat numbers. The latter earned well over half the seats in the Parliament (63.3%)  having only earned 33.7% of the vote.

4. The Reform party earned 13-14% of the popular vote but picked up only five seats (out of 650). If ever the parliamentary system is in need of some major work, now is the time.